The Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast for August 5 calls for sunny periods with very hot conditions and a maximum temperature near 33 °C in urban areas, a couple of degrees higher in the New Territories, driven by subtropical high pressure, light winds, and strong daytime solar heating under clear skies. Morning observations at 29 °C by 10 a.m. align with typical August climatology, where the seasonal baseline already sits slightly above normal owing to long-term warming trends and neutral-to-favorable ENSO conditions. Traders appear to be weighting finer-scale model consensus and urban heat-island effects that often cap official maxima one degree lower than initial guidance, pushing implied probability toward 32 °C while keeping 33 °C as a secondary outcome. Updated regional forecasts and any late-day convective development remain the key near-term variables that could shift these probabilities before the Hong Kong Observatory records the official daily peak.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月5日の香港の最高気温は?
32°C 57%
31°C 28%
33°C 13%
34°C 2.8%
$169,193 Vol.
$169,193 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
28%
32°C
57%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 57%
31°C 28%
33°C 13%
34°C 2.8%
$169,193 Vol.
$169,193 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
28%
32°C
57%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory’s current forecast for August 5 calls for sunny periods with very hot conditions and a maximum temperature near 33 °C in urban areas, a couple of degrees higher in the New Territories, driven by subtropical high pressure, light winds, and strong daytime solar heating under clear skies. Morning observations at 29 °C by 10 a.m. align with typical August climatology, where the seasonal baseline already sits slightly above normal owing to long-term warming trends and neutral-to-favorable ENSO conditions. Traders appear to be weighting finer-scale model consensus and urban heat-island effects that often cap official maxima one degree lower than initial guidance, pushing implied probability toward 32 °C while keeping 33 °C as a secondary outcome. Updated regional forecasts and any late-day convective development remain the key near-term variables that could shift these probabilities before the Hong Kong Observatory records the official daily peak.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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