**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) currently position a 30°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 59.5% implied probability.** JMA’s latest bulletin, issued midday on August 5, projects a clear-to-cloudy day with a high of 30°C—below the long-term normal of 31.8°C—while yesterday’s verified peak reached only 29°C. This consensus is reinforced by typical early-August climatology, where highs cluster around 30–32°C amid the influence of the Pacific High and urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C locally but rarely push the official station reading far outside forecast bounds. Model agreement remains tight, with limited upside risk from unexpected insolation or southerly flow, keeping the 31°C bucket at 28% and higher outcomes below 6% combined. Traders are therefore pricing in the latest observational data and JMA guidance, which together favor the narrow 30–31°C window over broader seasonal extremes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月5日の東京の最高気温は?
30°C 73%
31°C 28%
32°C 5%
33°C <1%
$68,603 Vol.
$68,603 Vol.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
67%
31°C
28%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 73%
31°C 28%
32°C 5%
33°C <1%
$68,603 Vol.
$68,603 Vol.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
67%
31°C
28%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) currently position a 30°C daily maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 59.5% implied probability.** JMA’s latest bulletin, issued midday on August 5, projects a clear-to-cloudy day with a high of 30°C—below the long-term normal of 31.8°C—while yesterday’s verified peak reached only 29°C. This consensus is reinforced by typical early-August climatology, where highs cluster around 30–32°C amid the influence of the Pacific High and urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C locally but rarely push the official station reading far outside forecast bounds. Model agreement remains tight, with limited upside risk from unexpected insolation or southerly flow, keeping the 31°C bucket at 28% and higher outcomes below 6% combined. Traders are therefore pricing in the latest observational data and JMA guidance, which together favor the narrow 30–31°C window over broader seasonal extremes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問