Recent forecast updates from major models place Munich's August 5 maximum near the 33–34°C threshold, driving the near-even market split between those outcomes. Ensemble runs show modest disagreement on cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift peak readings by 1°C at official stations. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow support warm advection, yet scattered afternoon thunderstorms—common in Bavarian summer—may cap temperatures through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Historical August maxima average near 25°C, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly, with traders weighting the latest high-resolution guidance and urban heat-island adjustments at city-center sites versus airport observations. Updated model cycles this afternoon represent the next key catalyst for any odds shift.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月5日のミュンヘンの最高気温は?
34°C 44%
33°C 42%
35°C 12%
32°C 6%
$59,188 Vol.
$59,188 Vol.
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
6%
33°C
42%
34°C
44%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 44%
33°C 42%
35°C 12%
32°C 6%
$59,188 Vol.
$59,188 Vol.
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
6%
33°C
42%
34°C
44%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast updates from major models place Munich's August 5 maximum near the 33–34°C threshold, driving the near-even market split between those outcomes. Ensemble runs show modest disagreement on cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift peak readings by 1°C at official stations. Persistent high pressure and southerly flow support warm advection, yet scattered afternoon thunderstorms—common in Bavarian summer—may cap temperatures through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Historical August maxima average near 25°C, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly, with traders weighting the latest high-resolution guidance and urban heat-island adjustments at city-center sites versus airport observations. Updated model cycles this afternoon represent the next key catalyst for any odds shift.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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