Ongoing southwest monsoon flows, reinforced by nearby Tropical Depression Henry, are the main driver keeping Manila’s July 3 high-temperature odds clustered around 30–33 °C. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover limit solar heating, while variable convective timing and localized clearing can still allow brief spikes into the low-to-mid 30s. PAGASA’s latest guidance points to a 32 °C daytime peak with a 40 % rain chance, aligning with climatological July averages near 31 °C yet leaving room for model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Traders therefore assign comparable probabilities to 30–33 °C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exactly how much insolation will reach the surface amid the disturbed monsoon pattern.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Manila on July 3?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 3?
33°C 35%
32°C 34%
34°C 19%
37°C or higher 8%
新規
新規
2026/07/03
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
7%
32°C
34%
33°C
35%
34°C
19%
35°C
6%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
8%
33°C 35%
32°C 34%
34°C 19%
37°C or higher 8%
新規
新規
2026/07/03
27°C or below
$71 Vol.
1%
28°C
$27 Vol.
1%
29°C
$24 Vol.
1%
30°C
$80 Vol.
2%
31°C
$88 Vol.
7%
32°C
$266 Vol.
34%
33°C
$13 Vol.
35%
34°C
$2 Vol.
19%
35°C
$6 Vol.
6%
36°C
$21 Vol.
3%
37°C or higher
$66 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon flows, reinforced by nearby Tropical Depression Henry, are the main driver keeping Manila’s July 3 high-temperature odds clustered around 30–33 °C. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover limit solar heating, while variable convective timing and localized clearing can still allow brief spikes into the low-to-mid 30s. PAGASA’s latest guidance points to a 32 °C daytime peak with a 40 % rain chance, aligning with climatological July averages near 31 °C yet leaving room for model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Traders therefore assign comparable probabilities to 30–33 °C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exactly how much insolation will reach the surface amid the disturbed monsoon pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$665終了日
2026/07/03マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon flows, reinforced by nearby Tropical Depression Henry, are the main driver keeping Manila’s July 3 high-temperature odds clustered around 30–33 °C. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover limit solar heating, while variable convective timing and localized clearing can still allow brief spikes into the low-to-mid 30s. PAGASA’s latest guidance points to a 32 °C daytime peak with a 40 % rain chance, aligning with climatological July averages near 31 °C yet leaving room for model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Traders therefore assign comparable probabilities to 30–33 °C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exactly how much insolation will reach the surface amid the disturbed monsoon pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$665終了日
2026/07/03マーケット開始日
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETOngoing southwest monsoon flows, reinforced by nearby Tropical Depression Henry, are the main driver keeping Manila’s July 3 high-temperature odds clustered around 30–33 °C. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover limit solar heating, while variable convective timing and localized clearing can still allow brief spikes into the low-to-mid 30s. PAGASA’s latest guidance points to a 32 °C daytime peak with a 40 % rain chance, aligning with climatological July averages near 31 °C yet leaving room for model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Traders therefore assign comparable probabilities to 30–33 °C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exactly how much insolation will reach the surface amid the disturbed monsoon pattern.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問