Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in NYC on May 20?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 20?
94-95°F 99.8%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
104°F or higher <1%
$58,430 Vol.
$58,430 Vol.
2026/05/20
94-95°F
100%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 99.8%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
104°F or higher <1%
$58,430 Vol.
$58,430 Vol.
2026/05/20
94-95°F
$8,601 Vol.
100%
96-97°F
$9,361 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$2,362 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$2,245 Vol.
<1%
102-103°F
$1,502 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$359 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$58,430終了日
2026/05/20マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$58,430終了日
2026/05/20マーケット開始日
May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRecent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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