Global seismicity data from the USGS establish a long-term average of roughly 15–20 magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide each week, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major fault systems. This baseline rate, derived from decades of cataloged observations, places the probability of exceeding nine events in any seven-day window well above 90 percent under normal conditions. No anomalous swarm, aftershock sequence, or large-magnitude triggering event has altered the pattern in recent monitoring periods, reinforcing trader consensus around the >9 outcome. Variability remains possible if an unexpected cluster develops near a subduction zone or if detection thresholds shift with network coverage, though such deviations are statistically uncommon within a single week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6月8日から6月14日までの5.5以上の地震は何回ありますか?
>9 95%
8 3.6%
9 2.4%
7 <1%
$26,288 Vol.
$26,288 Vol.
3回以下
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
1%
7
1%
8
4%
9
2%
>9
95%
>9 95%
8 3.6%
9 2.4%
7 <1%
$26,288 Vol.
$26,288 Vol.
3回以下
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
1%
7
1%
8
4%
9
2%
>9
95%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity data from the USGS establish a long-term average of roughly 15–20 magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide each week, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major fault systems. This baseline rate, derived from decades of cataloged observations, places the probability of exceeding nine events in any seven-day window well above 90 percent under normal conditions. No anomalous swarm, aftershock sequence, or large-magnitude triggering event has altered the pattern in recent monitoring periods, reinforcing trader consensus around the >9 outcome. Variability remains possible if an unexpected cluster develops near a subduction zone or if detection thresholds shift with network coverage, though such deviations are statistically uncommon within a single week.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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