US intelligence in early May 2026 assesses Iran's nuclear program as constrained by June 2025 US and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed key enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, with limited further damage from February-April conflicts, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to a bomb despite 440kg of 60% enriched uranium sufficient for multiple warheads if processed. IAEA February reports note restricted access to affected facilities but no verified weaponization activities or testing preparations since Iran's 2003 halt, amid ongoing safeguards disputes. US Energy Secretary warnings of weeks to weapons-grade material highlight threshold risks, yet trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% due to military deterrence, diplomatic pressures, and absent breakout signals, with low odds of a detectable nuclear detonation before 2027 barring sudden escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$192,049 Vol.
$192,049 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$192,049 Vol.
$192,049 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence in early May 2026 assesses Iran's nuclear program as constrained by June 2025 US and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed key enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, with limited further damage from February-April conflicts, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to a bomb despite 440kg of 60% enriched uranium sufficient for multiple warheads if processed. IAEA February reports note restricted access to affected facilities but no verified weaponization activities or testing preparations since Iran's 2003 halt, amid ongoing safeguards disputes. US Energy Secretary warnings of weeks to weapons-grade material highlight threshold risks, yet trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% due to military deterrence, diplomatic pressures, and absent breakout signals, with low odds of a detectable nuclear detonation before 2027 barring sudden escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$192,049終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence in early May 2026 assesses Iran's nuclear program as constrained by June 2025 US and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed key enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, with limited further damage from February-April conflicts, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to a bomb despite 440kg of 60% enriched uranium sufficient for multiple warheads if processed. IAEA February reports note restricted access to affected facilities but no verified weaponization activities or testing preparations since Iran's 2003 halt, amid ongoing safeguards disputes. US Energy Secretary warnings of weeks to weapons-grade material highlight threshold risks, yet trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% due to military deterrence, diplomatic pressures, and absent breakout signals, with low odds of a detectable nuclear detonation before 2027 barring sudden escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$192,049終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence in early May 2026 assesses Iran's nuclear program as constrained by June 2025 US and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed key enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, with limited further damage from February-April conflicts, preserving a roughly one-year timeline to a bomb despite 440kg of 60% enriched uranium sufficient for multiple warheads if processed. IAEA February reports note restricted access to affected facilities but no verified weaponization activities or testing preparations since Iran's 2003 halt, amid ongoing safeguards disputes. US Energy Secretary warnings of weeks to weapons-grade material highlight threshold risks, yet trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% due to military deterrence, diplomatic pressures, and absent breakout signals, with low odds of a detectable nuclear detonation before 2027 barring sudden escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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