Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and extended estimated breakout timelines according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through June 2026 note persistent safeguards gaps and lost continuity over materials but no verified weaponization steps or test preparations. Ongoing indirect diplomacy, sanctions pressure, and Iran's threshold posture further reduce incentives for an overt test in the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" aligns with these setbacks, though unresolved highly enriched uranium stockpiles or rapid post-strike reconstitution could still shift timelines if political decisions change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$246,408 Vol.
$246,408 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$246,408 Vol.
$246,408 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and extended estimated breakout timelines according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through June 2026 note persistent safeguards gaps and lost continuity over materials but no verified weaponization steps or test preparations. Ongoing indirect diplomacy, sanctions pressure, and Iran's threshold posture further reduce incentives for an overt test in the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" aligns with these setbacks, though unresolved highly enriched uranium stockpiles or rapid post-strike reconstitution could still shift timelines if political decisions change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$246,408終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and extended estimated breakout timelines according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through June 2026 note persistent safeguards gaps and lost continuity over materials but no verified weaponization steps or test preparations. Ongoing indirect diplomacy, sanctions pressure, and Iran's threshold posture further reduce incentives for an overt test in the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" aligns with these setbacks, though unresolved highly enriched uranium stockpiles or rapid post-strike reconstitution could still shift timelines if political decisions change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$246,408終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and extended estimated breakout timelines according to multiple assessments. IAEA reports through June 2026 note persistent safeguards gaps and lost continuity over materials but no verified weaponization steps or test preparations. Ongoing indirect diplomacy, sanctions pressure, and Iran's threshold posture further reduce incentives for an overt test in the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" aligns with these setbacks, though unresolved highly enriched uranium stockpiles or rapid post-strike reconstitution could still shift timelines if political decisions change.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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