Repeated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related infrastructure, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Iran has not resumed enrichment, with a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming commitments against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic talks. These verified setbacks have extended breakout timelines to roughly nine to twelve months or longer while limiting verification access. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects this degraded capacity and sustained external pressure. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected reconstruction at secondary sites, leadership decisions amid heightened regional tensions, or rapid escalation in the current conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Repeated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related infrastructure, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Iran has not resumed enrichment, with a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming commitments against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic talks. These verified setbacks have extended breakout timelines to roughly nine to twelve months or longer while limiting verification access. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects this degraded capacity and sustained external pressure. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected reconstruction at secondary sites, leadership decisions amid heightened regional tensions, or rapid escalation in the current conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$246,407終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Repeated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related infrastructure, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Iran has not resumed enrichment, with a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming commitments against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic talks. These verified setbacks have extended breakout timelines to roughly nine to twelve months or longer while limiting verification access. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects this degraded capacity and sustained external pressure. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected reconstruction at secondary sites, leadership decisions amid heightened regional tensions, or rapid escalation in the current conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$246,407終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Repeated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and disrupting weaponization-related infrastructure, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Iran has not resumed enrichment, with a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming commitments against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic talks. These verified setbacks have extended breakout timelines to roughly nine to twelve months or longer while limiting verification access. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects this degraded capacity and sustained external pressure. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected reconstruction at secondary sites, leadership decisions amid heightened regional tensions, or rapid escalation in the current conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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