Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity and leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium potentially buried under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran requires roughly one year to produce a nuclear device, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and IAEA inspectors facing restricted access to affected locations. These developments have extended Iran’s breakout timeline, underpinning traders’ strong consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$192,428 Vol.
$192,428 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$192,428 Vol.
$192,428 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity and leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium potentially buried under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran requires roughly one year to produce a nuclear device, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and IAEA inspectors facing restricted access to affected locations. These developments have extended Iran’s breakout timeline, underpinning traders’ strong consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$192,428終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity and leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium potentially buried under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran requires roughly one year to produce a nuclear device, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and IAEA inspectors facing restricted access to affected locations. These developments have extended Iran’s breakout timeline, underpinning traders’ strong consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$192,428終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of Iran’s centrifuge capacity and leaving substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium potentially buried under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran requires roughly one year to produce a nuclear device, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and IAEA inspectors facing restricted access to affected locations. These developments have extended Iran’s breakout timeline, underpinning traders’ strong consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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