**Senator Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican and continues to participate in Senate proceedings and endorsements under that affiliation as of September 2026.** She has introduced bipartisan legislation, including a measure with Sen. Alex Padilla on atmospheric river forecasting, while occasionally breaking with party lines on issues such as net neutrality rules and Iran-related war powers resolutions. Past speculation about potential caucusing changes or independent status has not materialized into any announced departure, and official records list her as the Republican incumbent with a term extending through 2029 and a 2028 reelection bid. These patterns of intra-party dissent without formal exit align with the market's strong "No" pricing, reflecting the absence of verifiable steps toward leaving the Republican conference by year's end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
8% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Senator Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican and continues to participate in Senate proceedings and endorsements under that affiliation as of September 2026.** She has introduced bipartisan legislation, including a measure with Sen. Alex Padilla on atmospheric river forecasting, while occasionally breaking with party lines on issues such as net neutrality rules and Iran-related war powers resolutions. Past speculation about potential caucusing changes or independent status has not materialized into any announced departure, and official records list her as the Republican incumbent with a term extending through 2029 and a 2028 reelection bid. These patterns of intra-party dissent without formal exit align with the market's strong "No" pricing, reflecting the absence of verifiable steps toward leaving the Republican conference by year's end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
音量
$4,899終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Senator Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican and continues to participate in Senate proceedings and endorsements under that affiliation as of September 2026.** She has introduced bipartisan legislation, including a measure with Sen. Alex Padilla on atmospheric river forecasting, while occasionally breaking with party lines on issues such as net neutrality rules and Iran-related war powers resolutions. Past speculation about potential caucusing changes or independent status has not materialized into any announced departure, and official records list her as the Republican incumbent with a term extending through 2029 and a 2028 reelection bid. These patterns of intra-party dissent without formal exit align with the market's strong "No" pricing, reflecting the absence of verifiable steps toward leaving the Republican conference by year's end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Murkowski leaves, or announces that she is leaving, the Republican Party by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An official announcement from Murkowski that she will leave the Republican Party, join a separate party, or become an independent within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the announced party switch is intended to take effect or whether Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the Republican Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lisa Murkowski; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$4,899終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 5:28 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Senator Lisa Murkowski remains a registered Republican and continues to participate in Senate proceedings and endorsements under that affiliation as of September 2026.** She has introduced bipartisan legislation, including a measure with Sen. Alex Padilla on atmospheric river forecasting, while occasionally breaking with party lines on issues such as net neutrality rules and Iran-related war powers resolutions. Past speculation about potential caucusing changes or independent status has not materialized into any announced departure, and official records list her as the Republican incumbent with a term extending through 2029 and a 2028 reelection bid. These patterns of intra-party dissent without formal exit align with the market's strong "No" pricing, reflecting the absence of verifiable steps toward leaving the Republican conference by year's end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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