Recent model consensus points to a weakening heat dome allowing a frontal boundary to approach the Northeast on July 5, introducing showers and a modest influx of cooler maritime air that caps daytime highs near 86°F while creating uncertainty in the overnight minimum. Radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the precise timing of any precipitation will determine whether the low settles in the mid-70s or dips toward 70°F, consistent with the tightly clustered market odds around 72–75°F. Historical July averages near 70°F provide context, yet the ongoing heat wave’s lingering warmth and model spread on boundary placement sustain the balanced probabilities across the 68–77°F range. Updated NWS guidance and high-resolution runs expected overnight will likely refine the outlook.