**Dominant market consensus on sub-275 mm total September precipitation in Hong Kong stems from verified Hong Kong Observatory measurements showing only 94.2 mm accumulated through September 27—well below the 1991-2020 climatological average of 321.4 mm.** With just two to three days remaining and official forecasts indicating mostly dry or light conditions under stable high-pressure influence, additional rainfall is expected to remain minimal. This positions the <275 mm outcome as the overwhelming trader consensus, reflecting real-time observational data and short-range model guidance. A late-season tropical cyclone or unusually intense monsoon surge could still add tens of millimeters, but current atmospheric patterns and the proximity to month-end make such shifts unlikely.
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