The market shows high uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second in mathematical reasoning benchmarks by late October, with multiple options priced near 50% and Google holding the clearest edge at 39.5%. Traders appear focused on labs demonstrating strong performance on quantitative tasks through advanced reasoning techniques, synthetic data training, and iterative fine-tuning of large language models. Chinese developers such as Alibaba, Z.ai, and DeepSeek benefit from aggressive scaling and domain-specific optimizations, while Western labs like Anthropic and OpenAI trail due to slower recent math-focused updates. Key upcoming catalysts include new model releases and benchmark refreshes that could quickly reorder standings in this closely contested field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Google 40%
アリババ 23%
Nvidia 9.3%
Xiaomi 9%

40%

アリババ
23%

Nvidia
9%

Xiaomi
9%

Z.ai
13%

Anthropic
5%

DeepSeek
5%

OpenAI
5%

バイトダンス
5%

美団
4%

Baidu
4%

Amazon
4%

Meta
4%

マイクロソフト
4%

StepFun
4%

SpaceXAI
3%

ムーンショット
3%

テンセント
2%

MiniMax
1%

Mistral
1%
Google 40%
アリババ 23%
Nvidia 9.3%
Xiaomi 9%

40%

アリババ
23%

Nvidia
9%

Xiaomi
9%

Z.ai
13%

Anthropic
5%

DeepSeek
5%

OpenAI
5%

バイトダンス
5%

美団
4%

Baidu
4%

Amazon
4%

Meta
4%

マイクロソフト
4%

StepFun
4%

SpaceXAI
3%

ムーンショット
3%

テンセント
2%

MiniMax
1%

Mistral
1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market shows high uncertainty over which AI lab will rank second in mathematical reasoning benchmarks by late October, with multiple options priced near 50% and Google holding the clearest edge at 39.5%. Traders appear focused on labs demonstrating strong performance on quantitative tasks through advanced reasoning techniques, synthetic data training, and iterative fine-tuning of large language models. Chinese developers such as Alibaba, Z.ai, and DeepSeek benefit from aggressive scaling and domain-specific optimizations, while Western labs like Anthropic and OpenAI trail due to slower recent math-focused updates. Key upcoming catalysts include new model releases and benchmark refreshes that could quickly reorder standings in this closely contested field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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