SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and heavy capital expenditures continue to anchor trader sentiment for its end-September 2026 market capitalization, with recent earnings revealing $28.5 billion in first-half capex and sharply negative free cash flow alongside revenue growth to an annualized run rate near $41 billion. The stock, which debuted near $1.8 trillion in June before peaking above $2.6 trillion and retracing toward $1.4–1.7 trillion, reflects competing pressures from Starship test cadence—including an imminent Flight 14 attempt with potential tower catch and Starlink V3 deployment—and ongoing dilution concerns tied to aggressive expansion into AI compute via Terafab. Closely matched probabilities across the $1–1.25 trillion, sub-$1 trillion, and higher brackets underscore the narrow window for resolution and the sensitivity of near-term multiples to regulatory approvals, launch frequency, and any shifts in implied price-to-sales valuations amid broader market risk appetite.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<$1.00T 48%
$1.00-$1.25T 48%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
$1.75-$2.00T 48%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
<$1.00T
48%
$1.00-$1.25T
48%
$1.25-$1.50T
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
47%
$1.75-$2.00T
48%
$2.00-$2.25T
47%
$2.25T+
48%
<$1.00T 48%
$1.00-$1.25T 48%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
$1.75-$2.00T 48%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
47%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
48%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
47%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and heavy capital expenditures continue to anchor trader sentiment for its end-September 2026 market capitalization, with recent earnings revealing $28.5 billion in first-half capex and sharply negative free cash flow alongside revenue growth to an annualized run rate near $41 billion. The stock, which debuted near $1.8 trillion in June before peaking above $2.6 trillion and retracing toward $1.4–1.7 trillion, reflects competing pressures from Starship test cadence—including an imminent Flight 14 attempt with potential tower catch and Starlink V3 deployment—and ongoing dilution concerns tied to aggressive expansion into AI compute via Terafab. Closely matched probabilities across the $1–1.25 trillion, sub-$1 trillion, and higher brackets underscore the narrow window for resolution and the sensitivity of near-term multiples to regulatory approvals, launch frequency, and any shifts in implied price-to-sales valuations amid broader market risk appetite.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and heavy capital expenditures continue to anchor trader sentiment for its end-September 2026 market capitalization, with recent earnings revealing $28.5 billion in first-half capex and sharply negative free cash flow alongside revenue growth to an annualized run rate near $41 billion. The stock, which debuted near $1.8 trillion in June before peaking above $2.6 trillion and retracing toward $1.4–1.7 trillion, reflects competing pressures from Starship test cadence—including an imminent Flight 14 attempt with potential tower catch and Starlink V3 deployment—and ongoing dilution concerns tied to aggressive expansion into AI compute via Terafab. Closely matched probabilities across the $1–1.25 trillion, sub-$1 trillion, and higher brackets underscore the narrow window for resolution and the sensitivity of near-term multiples to regulatory approvals, launch frequency, and any shifts in implied price-to-sales valuations amid broader market risk appetite.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and heavy capital expenditures continue to anchor trader sentiment for its end-September 2026 market capitalization, with recent earnings revealing $28.5 billion in first-half capex and sharply negative free cash flow alongside revenue growth to an annualized run rate near $41 billion. The stock, which debuted near $1.8 trillion in June before peaking above $2.6 trillion and retracing toward $1.4–1.7 trillion, reflects competing pressures from Starship test cadence—including an imminent Flight 14 attempt with potential tower catch and Starlink V3 deployment—and ongoing dilution concerns tied to aggressive expansion into AI compute via Terafab. Closely matched probabilities across the $1–1.25 trillion, sub-$1 trillion, and higher brackets underscore the narrow window for resolution and the sensitivity of near-term multiples to regulatory approvals, launch frequency, and any shifts in implied price-to-sales valuations amid broader market risk appetite.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日関連
Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be less than $1.00T at the end of August 2026?
48%
Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.25T and $1.50T at the end of September 2026?
43%
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of September 2026?
48%
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