SpaceX's post-June 2026 IPO performance and August 4 earnings report form the core driver of current trader positioning on its end-August market cap. Shares debuted at a $1.75 trillion valuation, briefly exceeded $2 trillion amid 19% debut gains, then retreated toward $1.4 trillion after the report highlighted strong revenue growth alongside elevated capital spending and negative free cash flow. With resolution imminent, the leading $1.75–2.00T band at 61.5% implied probability embeds expectations for near-term stabilization or modest recovery, consistent with the stock's historical volatility around high revenue multiples. Overlapping ranges near $1.25–1.50T and $2.00–2.25T reflect ongoing uncertainty tied to execution on Starlink, launches, and broader risk appetite. Aggregated Polymarket pricing captures skin-in-the-game consensus on these near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<$1.00T 66%
$1.75-$2.00T 62%
$1.25-$1.50T 36%
$2.00-$2.25T 36%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
<$1.00T
66%
$1.00-$1.25T
34%
$1.25-$1.50T
36%
$1.50-$1.75T
18%
$1.75-$2.00T
62%
$2.00-$2.25T
36%
$2.25T+
34%
<$1.00T 66%
$1.75-$2.00T 62%
$1.25-$1.50T 36%
$2.00-$2.25T 36%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
<$1.00T
$10 Vol.
66%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
34%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
36%
$1.50-$1.75T
$2,084 Vol.
18%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
62%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
36%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-June 2026 IPO performance and August 4 earnings report form the core driver of current trader positioning on its end-August market cap. Shares debuted at a $1.75 trillion valuation, briefly exceeded $2 trillion amid 19% debut gains, then retreated toward $1.4 trillion after the report highlighted strong revenue growth alongside elevated capital spending and negative free cash flow. With resolution imminent, the leading $1.75–2.00T band at 61.5% implied probability embeds expectations for near-term stabilization or modest recovery, consistent with the stock's historical volatility around high revenue multiples. Overlapping ranges near $1.25–1.50T and $2.00–2.25T reflect ongoing uncertainty tied to execution on Starlink, launches, and broader risk appetite. Aggregated Polymarket pricing captures skin-in-the-game consensus on these near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
音量
$2,094終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-June 2026 IPO performance and August 4 earnings report form the core driver of current trader positioning on its end-August market cap. Shares debuted at a $1.75 trillion valuation, briefly exceeded $2 trillion amid 19% debut gains, then retreated toward $1.4 trillion after the report highlighted strong revenue growth alongside elevated capital spending and negative free cash flow. With resolution imminent, the leading $1.75–2.00T band at 61.5% implied probability embeds expectations for near-term stabilization or modest recovery, consistent with the stock's historical volatility around high revenue multiples. Overlapping ranges near $1.25–1.50T and $2.00–2.25T reflect ongoing uncertainty tied to execution on Starlink, launches, and broader risk appetite. Aggregated Polymarket pricing captures skin-in-the-game consensus on these near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
音量
$2,094終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-June 2026 IPO performance and August 4 earnings report form the core driver of current trader positioning on its end-August market cap. Shares debuted at a $1.75 trillion valuation, briefly exceeded $2 trillion amid 19% debut gains, then retreated toward $1.4 trillion after the report highlighted strong revenue growth alongside elevated capital spending and negative free cash flow. With resolution imminent, the leading $1.75–2.00T band at 61.5% implied probability embeds expectations for near-term stabilization or modest recovery, consistent with the stock's historical volatility around high revenue multiples. Overlapping ranges near $1.25–1.50T and $2.00–2.25T reflect ongoing uncertainty tied to execution on Starlink, launches, and broader risk appetite. Aggregated Polymarket pricing captures skin-in-the-game consensus on these near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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