Redistricting consolidated two longtime Democratic strongholds into Texas’s 18th Congressional District, forcing a May 26 runoff between incumbents Christian Menefee and Al Green after neither topped 50 percent in the March primary. Menefee, who secured the seat via special election last year, holds a commanding lead in recent University of Houston and Lake Research polls while outraising Green by roughly two-to-one in the latest quarter. The 38-year-old’s incumbency advantage in the district’s core areas and stronger recent fundraising have shaped trader consensus around his high probability of nomination. Green, the 78-year-old veteran, retains name recognition but trails on momentum and resources. Minor candidates remain negligible factors. Late developments such as shared emphasis on voting-rights legislation have not materially altered the positioning ahead of the runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日クリスチャン・メネフィー 89.3%
アル・グリーン 10.4%
グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%
$27,959 Vol.
$27,959 Vol.
クリスチャン・メネフィー
89%
アル・グリーン
10%
グレッチェン・ブラウン
<1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ
<1%
クリスチャン・メネフィー 89.3%
アル・グリーン 10.4%
グレッチェン・ブラウン <1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ <1%
$27,959 Vol.
$27,959 Vol.
クリスチャン・メネフィー
89%
アル・グリーン
10%
グレッチェン・ブラウン
<1%
アマンダ・エドワーズ
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting consolidated two longtime Democratic strongholds into Texas’s 18th Congressional District, forcing a May 26 runoff between incumbents Christian Menefee and Al Green after neither topped 50 percent in the March primary. Menefee, who secured the seat via special election last year, holds a commanding lead in recent University of Houston and Lake Research polls while outraising Green by roughly two-to-one in the latest quarter. The 38-year-old’s incumbency advantage in the district’s core areas and stronger recent fundraising have shaped trader consensus around his high probability of nomination. Green, the 78-year-old veteran, retains name recognition but trails on momentum and resources. Minor candidates remain negligible factors. Late developments such as shared emphasis on voting-rights legislation have not materially altered the positioning ahead of the runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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