Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge at 62% implied probability over incumbent Senator John Cornyn's 38% in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff set for May 26, reflecting Paxton's narrow leads in recent polls like the University of Houston survey showing him ahead 48%-45% among likely GOP voters. This positioning stems from the March 3 primary where neither secured a majority—Cornyn at 42%, Paxton at 40%—followed by Rep. Wesley Hunt's withdrawal and his supporters shifting toward Paxton, amplifying anti-establishment momentum amid criticisms of Cornyn's bipartisan votes on gun safety and Ukraine aid. Early voting begins May 18, with President Trump's pending endorsement a potential catalyst, while Cornyn leverages superior fundraising despite the tight contest. Minor candidates trail far behind as the race consolidates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日John Cornyn holds rally in Austin amid tight primary race
John Cornyn rises to 42%4%
Cornyn held a rally in Austin to rally supporters and counter Paxton's momentum, but his market support remained below Paxton's, reflecting ongoing challenges in the primary.
John Cornyn’s campaign suffers after scandal over undisclosed offshore accounts emerges
John Cornyn dips to 60%4%
Revelations about Cornyn’s offshore holdings caused his price to dip from 64% to 60% by April 28, reflecting voter wariness.
Ken Paxton holds rally in Tyler, Texas, intensifying primary campaign
Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%
Paxton held a major rally in Tyler, energizing his base and increasing his visibility in the primary race, which contributed to a rise in his market support.
Ken Paxton regains momentum in Texas Senate primary runoff race
Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%
Paxton's campaign regained strength in the runoff phase, reflected by a market price increase to 63%, as he consolidated support among Republican voters and leveraged his base effectively.
Ken Paxton rebounds after releasing new campaign strategy focusing on border security
Ken Paxton surges to 64%41%
Paxton’s refreshed messaging on border security restored voter confidence, lifting his price from 23% to 64% by April 7.
Ken Paxton’s price crashes after court rules he cannot shut down Latino voting group
Ken Paxton plunges to 23%60%
A federal judge’s decision limiting Paxton’s voter‑registration lawsuit hurt his credibility, dropping his price from 83% to 23% within days.
John Cornyn's support surges after aggressive campaign spending
John Cornyn surges to 87%61%
Cornyn's campaign and aligned super PACs heavily outspent rivals, leading to a sharp increase in his primary support, though volatility remained high due to the competitive field.
Market reacts to uncertainty post-Texas primary with sharp price swings
Ken Paxton plunges to 15%70%
Following the primary, market prices for Paxton and Cornyn fluctuated significantly as investors digested the possibility of a runoff and the evolving political dynamics, causing Paxton's price to drop to 15% and then rebound.
Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump airs, boosting his primary support
Ken Paxton jumps to 74%14%
Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips with Donald Trump, leveraging Trump's popularity among GOP voters to increase Paxton's support in the primary race against Cornyn and Hunt.
John Cornyn’s price spikes to 91% after surprise poll shows lead over Paxton
John Cornyn surges to 91%51%
A poll released showing Cornyn briefly ahead of Paxton caused his price to surge from 40% to 91% by March 4, before a rapid reversal as new information about Paxton’s legal standing emerged.
Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico compete in Texas Senate primary debate
Crockett and Talarico debated in the Democratic primary, highlighting their policy differences and campaign styles, which shaped voter perceptions ahead of the March 3 primary and influenced the Democratic side of the Senate race.
Texas Republican Senate primary held with Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt as main contenders
The Texas Republican Senate primary took place with incumbent John Cornyn facing strong challenges from Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt. The competitive nature of the race and the split vote made a runoff likely, impacting market prices and expectations.
Texas Republican Senate primary election held
Ken Paxton plunges to 15%48%
The primary election took place with Ken Paxton and John Cornyn as the main contenders. Paxton's price peaked at 85% before dropping sharply, reflecting initial optimism followed by uncertainty about the final outcome.
Jasmine Crockett launches US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising her profile and setting up a competitive Democratic primary against James Talarico, which indirectly influenced the overall Senate race environment.
Stephen Colbert reveals CBS pulled James Talarico interview over FCC rules
Late-night host Stephen Colbert disclosed that CBS lawyers pulled an interview with Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico due to concerns about FCC equal-time rules, drawing media attention to Talarico's campaign during early voting and potentially affecting Democratic primary dynamics.
Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new Trump‑endorsed TV spot
Ken Paxton surges to 83%41%
A Trump‑endorsed advertisement aired, pushing Paxton’s price sharply upward from 42% to 83% by February 24, reflecting a surge in Trump‑aligned voter enthusiasm.
Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump footage airs
Ken Paxton surges to 75%15%
Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips of him with Donald Trump, aiming to solidify support among Trump loyalists and boost his primary chances, which corresponded with a price increase in the market.
Democrat Taylor Rehmet flips Republican Texas state Senate seat
Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election flipping a reliably Republican state Senate district in Texas, signaling Democratic momentum in the state and potentially influencing perceptions of the general election environment for the Senate race.
Ken Paxton issues opinion supporting exclusion of certain schools from voucher program
Attorney General Ken Paxton released an opinion stating that Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock has the authority to exclude schools from the state voucher program if they are tied to terrorist or foreign adversary groups. This reinforced Paxton's conservative credentials during the primary season.
John Cornyn wins $10 million donation from Texas GOP donors
John Cornyn jumps to 32%6%
A large donation from state GOP donors reinforced Cornyn’s establishment support, lifting his price from 26% to 32% by January 16, 2026.
Texas Comptroller requests Paxton's opinion on excluding schools from voucher program
Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock sought Attorney General Ken Paxton's legal opinion on excluding certain private schools from the state voucher program based on alleged ties to foreign adversaries, highlighting Paxton's influence in state policy and energizing his conservative base.
Jasmine Crockett announces US Senate bid in Texas
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising the profile of the Democratic primary and setting up a potential general election challenge to the Republican nominee. While not directly affecting the Republican primary market, this shaped the overall race dynamics.
John Cornyn’s campaign releases attack ad against Paxton
John Cornyn jumps to 51%8%
The ad highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles, contributing to a price dip for Paxton from 62% to 51% and a modest rise for Cornyn from 43% to 51% by December 16.
Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate bid
Wesley Hunt announced his candidacy for the Texas Senate Republican primary, adding a Trump-aligned challenger to the race and increasing the likelihood of a runoff. This announcement contributed to Hunt's initial market price rise before it later declined to zero.
Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate primary challenge to John Cornyn
Wesley Hunt plunges to 10%40%
Rep. Wesley Hunt announced his candidacy for the Texas Senate Republican primary, positioning himself as a Trump loyalist and increasing the likelihood of a runoff by splitting the anti-Cornyn vote. This announcement pressured Cornyn's standing and affected market prices.
Ken Paxton appears at rally in Tyler, attacks John Cornyn
Ken Paxton jumps to 72%13%
Paxton’s rally framed Cornyn as an establishment figure, causing Paxton’s price to jump from 59% to 72% by February 1, 2026, while Cornyn’s price fell.
John Cornyn raises $30 million in Q3 fundraising
John Cornyn jumps to 34%13%
Cornyn’s fundraising surge signaled strong establishment backing, temporarily boosting his market price from 21% to 34% by September 11.
Wesley Hunt launches TV ad featuring Trump endorsement
Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%
Hunt released a new television advertisement highlighting his support from former President Trump, raising his visibility and pushing his price up from 5% to 8% by early September.
Ken Paxton announces new investigation into non‑citizen voting claims
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Paxton filed a lawsuit targeting alleged non‑citizen ballot activity, positioning himself as a defender of election integrity and appealing to Trump‑aligned voters, which helped lift his market price from 50% to 62% by July 26.
Ken Paxton announces investigation into noncitizen voting in Texas
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Attorney General Ken Paxton announced an investigation into potential noncitizens casting ballots in Texas elections, a move that reinforced his tough stance on election integrity and boosted his support among Republican primary voters concerned about voter fraud.
Ken Paxton intensifies campaign with rally in Tyler, Texas
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Ken Paxton stepped up his campaign efforts with a rally in Tyler, signaling a more aggressive approach against incumbent John Cornyn. This rally helped boost Paxton's market price from 50% to 62%, reflecting increased investor confidence in his chances.
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