Trader consensus prices a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent gridlock in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Guardrails Act and Protect American AI Act earlier this year. No federal legislation has advanced beyond committees, as the Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes light-touch regulations and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, facing industry pushback and competing priorities. Recent state actions—Washington signing two AI bills in March and Connecticut passing regulations in May—highlight federal inaction, with midterm elections and a potential lame-duck session unlikely to yield passage amid divided whips counts and filibuster risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$98,173 Vol.
$98,173 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$98,173 Vol.
$98,173 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent gridlock in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Guardrails Act and Protect American AI Act earlier this year. No federal legislation has advanced beyond committees, as the Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes light-touch regulations and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, facing industry pushback and competing priorities. Recent state actions—Washington signing two AI bills in March and Connecticut passing regulations in May—highlight federal inaction, with midterm elections and a potential lame-duck session unlikely to yield passage amid divided whips counts and filibuster risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
音量
$98,173終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent gridlock in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Guardrails Act and Protect American AI Act earlier this year. No federal legislation has advanced beyond committees, as the Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes light-touch regulations and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, facing industry pushback and competing priorities. Recent state actions—Washington signing two AI bills in March and Connecticut passing regulations in May—highlight federal inaction, with midterm elections and a potential lame-duck session unlikely to yield passage amid divided whips counts and filibuster risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$98,173終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by persistent gridlock in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the AI Guardrails Act and Protect American AI Act earlier this year. No federal legislation has advanced beyond committees, as the Trump administration's March 2026 National Policy Framework prioritizes light-touch regulations and state preemption over stringent safety mandates, facing industry pushback and competing priorities. Recent state actions—Washington signing two AI bills in March and Connecticut passing regulations in May—highlight federal inaction, with midterm elections and a potential lame-duck session unlikely to yield passage amid divided whips counts and filibuster risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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