Traders assign an 84.5% probability to “No” on a comprehensive U.S. AI safety bill before 2027 because the 119th Congress has introduced multiple measures—including the AI PLAN Act, Warner’s SAFE AI and Secure AI Development Acts, and transparency proposals—yet none have advanced beyond committee or floor consideration amid competing priorities. The Trump administration has emphasized executive actions such as the December 2025 National AI Policy Framework and CAISI evaluation partnerships with major developers, favoring a minimally burdensome federal approach and preemption of conflicting state rules over new statutory mandates. With only months remaining in 2026 and state-level activity (over 1,500 bills introduced across 45 states, plus enactments in Illinois and elsewhere) addressing targeted risks, the legislative calendar and policy focus on innovation and national security testing reduce the near-term odds of enactment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
13% 確率
$101,400 Vol.
$101,400 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
13% 確率
$101,400 Vol.
$101,400 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders assign an 84.5% probability to “No” on a comprehensive U.S. AI safety bill before 2027 because the 119th Congress has introduced multiple measures—including the AI PLAN Act, Warner’s SAFE AI and Secure AI Development Acts, and transparency proposals—yet none have advanced beyond committee or floor consideration amid competing priorities. The Trump administration has emphasized executive actions such as the December 2025 National AI Policy Framework and CAISI evaluation partnerships with major developers, favoring a minimally burdensome federal approach and preemption of conflicting state rules over new statutory mandates. With only months remaining in 2026 and state-level activity (over 1,500 bills introduced across 45 states, plus enactments in Illinois and elsewhere) addressing targeted risks, the legislative calendar and policy focus on innovation and national security testing reduce the near-term odds of enactment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
音量
$101,400終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders assign an 84.5% probability to “No” on a comprehensive U.S. AI safety bill before 2027 because the 119th Congress has introduced multiple measures—including the AI PLAN Act, Warner’s SAFE AI and Secure AI Development Acts, and transparency proposals—yet none have advanced beyond committee or floor consideration amid competing priorities. The Trump administration has emphasized executive actions such as the December 2025 National AI Policy Framework and CAISI evaluation partnerships with major developers, favoring a minimally burdensome federal approach and preemption of conflicting state rules over new statutory mandates. With only months remaining in 2026 and state-level activity (over 1,500 bills introduced across 45 states, plus enactments in Illinois and elsewhere) addressing targeted risks, the legislative calendar and policy focus on innovation and national security testing reduce the near-term odds of enactment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$101,400終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 84.5% probability to “No” on a comprehensive U.S. AI safety bill before 2027 because the 119th Congress has introduced multiple measures—including the AI PLAN Act, Warner’s SAFE AI and Secure AI Development Acts, and transparency proposals—yet none have advanced beyond committee or floor consideration amid competing priorities. The Trump administration has emphasized executive actions such as the December 2025 National AI Policy Framework and CAISI evaluation partnerships with major developers, favoring a minimally burdensome federal approach and preemption of conflicting state rules over new statutory mandates. With only months remaining in 2026 and state-level activity (over 1,500 bills introduced across 45 states, plus enactments in Illinois and elsewhere) addressing targeted risks, the legislative calendar and policy focus on innovation and national security testing reduce the near-term odds of enactment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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