Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Opus 4.8 and the newly launched Fable 5 in early June 2026, have driven the 96.5% market-implied odds by topping coding-specific benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, Code Arena ratings, and agentic task evaluations. These models demonstrate superior performance in multi-file refactoring, long-context reasoning, and reliable code generation compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants or other competitors. Trader consensus reflects this established lead in developer tooling ecosystems like Cursor. A credible new model release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before month-end could still narrow the gap, though current verified capabilities make such an upset unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 96.5%
OpenAI 2.0%
Z.ai <1%
Alibaba <1%
$69,353 Vol.
$69,353 Vol.
2026/06/30
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
<1%
<1%
xAI
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 96.5%
OpenAI 2.0%
Z.ai <1%
Alibaba <1%
$69,353 Vol.
$69,353 Vol.
2026/06/30
Anthropic
$9,957 Vol.
97%
OpenAI
$8,884 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$8,297 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$5,774 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$5,818 Vol.
<1%
$6,943 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$8,455 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$3,593 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$5,777 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,844 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$747 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$868 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$894 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$633 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$870 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Opus 4.8 and the newly launched Fable 5 in early June 2026, have driven the 96.5% market-implied odds by topping coding-specific benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, Code Arena ratings, and agentic task evaluations. These models demonstrate superior performance in multi-file refactoring, long-context reasoning, and reliable code generation compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants or other competitors. Trader consensus reflects this established lead in developer tooling ecosystems like Cursor. A credible new model release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before month-end could still narrow the gap, though current verified capabilities make such an upset unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
音量
$69,353終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Opus 4.8 and the newly launched Fable 5 in early June 2026, have driven the 96.5% market-implied odds by topping coding-specific benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, Code Arena ratings, and agentic task evaluations. These models demonstrate superior performance in multi-file refactoring, long-context reasoning, and reliable code generation compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants or other competitors. Trader consensus reflects this established lead in developer tooling ecosystems like Cursor. A credible new model release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before month-end could still narrow the gap, though current verified capabilities make such an upset unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$69,353終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude releases, including Opus 4.8 and the newly launched Fable 5 in early June 2026, have driven the 96.5% market-implied odds by topping coding-specific benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, Code Arena ratings, and agentic task evaluations. These models demonstrate superior performance in multi-file refactoring, long-context reasoning, and reliable code generation compared with OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants or other competitors. Trader consensus reflects this established lead in developer tooling ecosystems like Cursor. A credible new model release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before month-end could still narrow the gap, though current verified capabilities make such an upset unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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