Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 continue to drive the 68% market-implied odds through demonstrated strengths in instruction-following, nuanced writing style, and agentic coding tasks that align closely with the “Style Control On” evaluation criteria. Recent benchmark updates show these models leading SWE-bench Verified and LM Arena text categories while maintaining a 1-million-token context window, giving traders confidence in sustained leadership through June. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, at 23%, has posted top scores on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 but trails in style-specific metrics. OpenAI’s April GPT-5.5 release and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not yet shifted the consensus, as traders weigh competitive positioning and upcoming developer events that could still influence final rankings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンソロピック 68%
Google 23%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,332 Vol.
$1,457,332 Vol.
2026/06/30
アンソロピック
68%
23%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
アリババ
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
マイクロソフト
1%
ムーンショット
1%
メイトゥアン
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
アンソロピック 68%
Google 23%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,332 Vol.
$1,457,332 Vol.
2026/06/30
アンソロピック
$30,603 Vol.
68%
$18,763 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$49,359 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,989 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,403 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$136,546 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,179 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,921 Vol.
1%
マイクロソフト
$11,907 Vol.
1%
ムーンショット
$203,389 Vol.
1%
メイトゥアン
$270,728 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$59,374 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$12,844 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$8,646 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$17,681 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 continue to drive the 68% market-implied odds through demonstrated strengths in instruction-following, nuanced writing style, and agentic coding tasks that align closely with the “Style Control On” evaluation criteria. Recent benchmark updates show these models leading SWE-bench Verified and LM Arena text categories while maintaining a 1-million-token context window, giving traders confidence in sustained leadership through June. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, at 23%, has posted top scores on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 but trails in style-specific metrics. OpenAI’s April GPT-5.5 release and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not yet shifted the consensus, as traders weigh competitive positioning and upcoming developer events that could still influence final rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
音量
$1,457,332終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 continue to drive the 68% market-implied odds through demonstrated strengths in instruction-following, nuanced writing style, and agentic coding tasks that align closely with the “Style Control On” evaluation criteria. Recent benchmark updates show these models leading SWE-bench Verified and LM Arena text categories while maintaining a 1-million-token context window, giving traders confidence in sustained leadership through June. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, at 23%, has posted top scores on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 but trails in style-specific metrics. OpenAI’s April GPT-5.5 release and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not yet shifted the consensus, as traders weigh competitive positioning and upcoming developer events that could still influence final rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$1,457,332終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 continue to drive the 68% market-implied odds through demonstrated strengths in instruction-following, nuanced writing style, and agentic coding tasks that align closely with the “Style Control On” evaluation criteria. Recent benchmark updates show these models leading SWE-bench Verified and LM Arena text categories while maintaining a 1-million-token context window, giving traders confidence in sustained leadership through June. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, at 23%, has posted top scores on GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2 but trails in style-specific metrics. OpenAI’s April GPT-5.5 release and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not yet shifted the consensus, as traders weigh competitive positioning and upcoming developer events that could still influence final rankings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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