Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 67.5% implied probability thanks to its Claude Opus 4.7 release in early May, which strengthened style control, literal prompt adherence, and output consistency for writing and agentic workflows. These capabilities align closely with the market's evaluation criteria, giving the company an edge over competitors in recent benchmarks for natural prose and instruction following. Google sits at 22.5% on the strength of Gemini 3.1 Pro's reasoning scores, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5, released in late April, trails at 5.5% despite strong general intelligence results. With only six weeks until end of June, any surprise model updates or benchmark shifts from xAI or DeepSeek could still influence final positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンソロピック 66%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,902 Vol.
$1,455,902 Vol.
2026/06/30
アンソロピック
66%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
アリババ
1%
マイクロソフト
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
ムーンショット
1%
メイトゥアン
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
アンソロピック 66%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,902 Vol.
$1,455,902 Vol.
2026/06/30
アンソロピック
$30,350 Vol.
66%
$18,356 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$49,319 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,949 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,120 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$136,496 Vol.
1%
マイクロソフト
$11,868 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,140 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,881 Vol.
1%
ムーンショット
$203,349 Vol.
1%
メイトゥアン
$270,689 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$59,334 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$17,641 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$12,804 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$8,606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 67.5% implied probability thanks to its Claude Opus 4.7 release in early May, which strengthened style control, literal prompt adherence, and output consistency for writing and agentic workflows. These capabilities align closely with the market's evaluation criteria, giving the company an edge over competitors in recent benchmarks for natural prose and instruction following. Google sits at 22.5% on the strength of Gemini 3.1 Pro's reasoning scores, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5, released in late April, trails at 5.5% despite strong general intelligence results. With only six weeks until end of June, any surprise model updates or benchmark shifts from xAI or DeepSeek could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
音量
$1,455,902終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 67.5% implied probability thanks to its Claude Opus 4.7 release in early May, which strengthened style control, literal prompt adherence, and output consistency for writing and agentic workflows. These capabilities align closely with the market's evaluation criteria, giving the company an edge over competitors in recent benchmarks for natural prose and instruction following. Google sits at 22.5% on the strength of Gemini 3.1 Pro's reasoning scores, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5, released in late April, trails at 5.5% despite strong general intelligence results. With only six weeks until end of June, any surprise model updates or benchmark shifts from xAI or DeepSeek could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$1,455,902終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 67.5% implied probability thanks to its Claude Opus 4.7 release in early May, which strengthened style control, literal prompt adherence, and output consistency for writing and agentic workflows. These capabilities align closely with the market's evaluation criteria, giving the company an edge over competitors in recent benchmarks for natural prose and instruction following. Google sits at 22.5% on the strength of Gemini 3.1 Pro's reasoning scores, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5, released in late April, trails at 5.5% despite strong general intelligence results. With only six weeks until end of June, any surprise model updates or benchmark shifts from xAI or DeepSeek could still influence final positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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