**Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering $360 million domestic debut in late July has anchored trader sentiment for the second-biggest 2026 opening weekend, giving it the highest implied probability at 54.5%.** Its $932 million global launch, driven by strong presales, Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, positive reviews, and an A CinemaScore, established a new benchmark that only Avengers: Endgame previously approached. Avengers: Doomsday sits at 43.5% as the main rival, with presales already exceeding $50 million three months out, holiday positioning on December 18, and massive multiverse hype including Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Doctor Doom fueling projections of $260–300 million or higher. The tight spread reflects uncertainty over whether Doomsday will top the chart or land second behind Spider-Man, while the cluster of other titles at 50% and minimal odds for Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah highlight how few 2026 releases are expected to reach comparable event levels. Key upcoming catalysts include Doomsday’s final marketing push and any late tracking updates that could shift momentum before year-end box-office resolution.