Current NOAA Coral Reef Watch data show Main Hawaiian Islands under Bleaching Watch conditions, with HotSpot values below 1 and limited Degree Heating Week (DHW) accumulation as of mid-August 2026, keeping the market near even at 52.5% for "No." Trader balance reflects uncertainty in whether sea surface temperatures will drive DHW to the Alert Level 1 threshold (4–8) before year-end, amid mixed climate model runs and ENSO transitions that could either suppress or intensify late-summer and fall heat stress. Key variables include regional SST anomaly forecasts from the CFS-based outlook, potential for rapid DHW buildup during peak warming months, and any revisions to the 5 km satellite products. Updated weekly outlooks and daily DHW readings through fall will likely shift consensus as new observations resolve the near-term trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
46% 確率
新規
新規
2027/01/01
はい
46% 確率
新規
新規
2027/01/01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".Current NOAA Coral Reef Watch data show Main Hawaiian Islands under Bleaching Watch conditions, with HotSpot values below 1 and limited Degree Heating Week (DHW) accumulation as of mid-August 2026, keeping the market near even at 52.5% for "No." Trader balance reflects uncertainty in whether sea surface temperatures will drive DHW to the Alert Level 1 threshold (4–8) before year-end, amid mixed climate model runs and ENSO transitions that could either suppress or intensify late-summer and fall heat stress. Key variables include regional SST anomaly forecasts from the CFS-based outlook, potential for rapid DHW buildup during peak warming months, and any revisions to the 5 km satellite products. Updated weekly outlooks and daily DHW readings through fall will likely shift consensus as new observations resolve the near-term trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
音量
$770終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".Current NOAA Coral Reef Watch data show Main Hawaiian Islands under Bleaching Watch conditions, with HotSpot values below 1 and limited Degree Heating Week (DHW) accumulation as of mid-August 2026, keeping the market near even at 52.5% for "No." Trader balance reflects uncertainty in whether sea surface temperatures will drive DHW to the Alert Level 1 threshold (4–8) before year-end, amid mixed climate model runs and ENSO transitions that could either suppress or intensify late-summer and fall heat stress. Key variables include regional SST anomaly forecasts from the CFS-based outlook, potential for rapid DHW buildup during peak warming months, and any revisions to the 5 km satellite products. Updated weekly outlooks and daily DHW readings through fall will likely shift consensus as new observations resolve the near-term trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for individual 5km satellite pixels that are not aggregated to the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station will not be used.
Only NOAA Coral Reef Watch readings dated within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026) can trigger a "Yes" resolution. If NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering this timeframe has not been published by January 4, 2027, this market will remain open until January 11, 2027, or until such data is published, whichever comes first. If no NOAA Coral Reef Watch data covering any day within this market's timeframe is ever published, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$770終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 2:28 PM ETCurrent NOAA Coral Reef Watch data show Main Hawaiian Islands under Bleaching Watch conditions, with HotSpot values below 1 and limited Degree Heating Week (DHW) accumulation as of mid-August 2026, keeping the market near even at 52.5% for "No." Trader balance reflects uncertainty in whether sea surface temperatures will drive DHW to the Alert Level 1 threshold (4–8) before year-end, amid mixed climate model runs and ENSO transitions that could either suppress or intensify late-summer and fall heat stress. Key variables include regional SST anomaly forecasts from the CFS-based outlook, potential for rapid DHW buildup during peak warming months, and any revisions to the 5 km satellite products. Updated weekly outlooks and daily DHW readings through fall will likely shift consensus as new observations resolve the near-term trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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