Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026, with "No" at a market-implied 92% probability, driven by INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano's April 2026 monthly bulletin confirming seismic activity remained at persistently low background levels—68 events mostly below magnitude 1—alongside stable ground deformation and fumarolic emissions. This aligns with 82 years of quiescence since the 1944 eruption and a 50-year pattern of low-energy seismicity documented in recent analyses. Realistic challenges include sudden seismic swarms, long-period earthquakes, or elevated SO2 flux, which could signal magma intrusion; watch for May's bulletin and real-time INGV data releases through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026, with "No" at a market-implied 92% probability, driven by INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano's April 2026 monthly bulletin confirming seismic activity remained at persistently low background levels—68 events mostly below magnitude 1—alongside stable ground deformation and fumarolic emissions. This aligns with 82 years of quiescence since the 1944 eruption and a 50-year pattern of low-energy seismicity documented in recent analyses. Realistic challenges include sudden seismic swarms, long-period earthquakes, or elevated SO2 flux, which could signal magma intrusion; watch for May's bulletin and real-time INGV data releases through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
マーケット開始日： Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
音量
$431終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026, with "No" at a market-implied 92% probability, driven by INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano's April 2026 monthly bulletin confirming seismic activity remained at persistently low background levels—68 events mostly below magnitude 1—alongside stable ground deformation and fumarolic emissions. This aligns with 82 years of quiescence since the 1944 eruption and a 50-year pattern of low-energy seismicity documented in recent analyses. Realistic challenges include sudden seismic swarms, long-period earthquakes, or elevated SO2 flux, which could signal magma intrusion; watch for May's bulletin and real-time INGV data releases through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
音量
$431終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026, with "No" at a market-implied 92% probability, driven by INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano's April 2026 monthly bulletin confirming seismic activity remained at persistently low background levels—68 events mostly below magnitude 1—alongside stable ground deformation and fumarolic emissions. This aligns with 82 years of quiescence since the 1944 eruption and a 50-year pattern of low-energy seismicity documented in recent analyses. Realistic challenges include sudden seismic swarms, long-period earthquakes, or elevated SO2 flux, which could signal magma intrusion; watch for May's bulletin and real-time INGV data releases through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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