Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a highest temperature near 82°F in New York City on August 18, consistent with the even distribution of market-implied odds across the 80–91°F bins. Typical mid-August conditions feature a Bermuda High ridge supporting southerly flow, with daytime highs averaging 83°F historically at Central Park, though afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, or scattered showers can cap peaks by 2–4°F. Short-range forecast ensembles show limited spread, keeping probabilities balanced while highlighting the role of boundary-layer moisture and mixing in determining whether readings reach the upper 80s or remain in the low 80s. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月18日のニューヨーク市の最高気温は？
8月18日のニューヨーク市の最高気温は？
86-87°F 42%
88-89°F 19%
84-85°F 17%
92-93°F 8%
新規
新規
2026/08/18
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
53%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
8%
94°F or higher
1%
86-87°F 42%
88-89°F 19%
84-85°F 17%
92-93°F 8%
新規
新規
2026/08/18
75°F or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
17%
86-87°F
$73 Vol.
53%
88-89°F
$46 Vol.
17%
90-91°F
$51 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$5 Vol.
8%
94°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a highest temperature near 82°F in New York City on August 18, consistent with the even distribution of market-implied odds across the 80–91°F bins. Typical mid-August conditions feature a Bermuda High ridge supporting southerly flow, with daytime highs averaging 83°F historically at Central Park, though afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, or scattered showers can cap peaks by 2–4°F. Short-range forecast ensembles show limited spread, keeping probabilities balanced while highlighting the role of boundary-layer moisture and mixing in determining whether readings reach the upper 80s or remain in the low 80s. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
音量
$195終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a highest temperature near 82°F in New York City on August 18, consistent with the even distribution of market-implied odds across the 80–91°F bins. Typical mid-August conditions feature a Bermuda High ridge supporting southerly flow, with daytime highs averaging 83°F historically at Central Park, though afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, or scattered showers can cap peaks by 2–4°F. Short-range forecast ensembles show limited spread, keeping probabilities balanced while highlighting the role of boundary-layer moisture and mixing in determining whether readings reach the upper 80s or remain in the low 80s. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$195終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a highest temperature near 82°F in New York City on August 18, consistent with the even distribution of market-implied odds across the 80–91°F bins. Typical mid-August conditions feature a Bermuda High ridge supporting southerly flow, with daytime highs averaging 83°F historically at Central Park, though afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, or scattered showers can cap peaks by 2–4°F. Short-range forecast ensembles show limited spread, keeping probabilities balanced while highlighting the role of boundary-layer moisture and mixing in determining whether readings reach the upper 80s or remain in the low 80s. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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