The Philippine Senate's composition and entrenched political alliances represent the primary barrier to convicting Vice President Sara Duterte on the House-transmitted articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and threats against President Marcos. With the trial underway since July 2026 and expected to extend well into 2027 across dozens of hearing days, Duterte-aligned senators hold sufficient seats to complicate reaching the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes out of 24. Recent debates over whether the conviction baseline includes absent or detained members have further highlighted procedural uncertainties that favor the defense position. Traders view these institutional dynamics and Senate leadership shifts as sustaining the current implied probability against conviction.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日35% 確率
$13,794 Vol.
$13,794 Vol.
2026/12/31
35% 確率
$13,794 Vol.
$13,794 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's composition and entrenched political alliances represent the primary barrier to convicting Vice President Sara Duterte on the House-transmitted articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and threats against President Marcos. With the trial underway since July 2026 and expected to extend well into 2027 across dozens of hearing days, Duterte-aligned senators hold sufficient seats to complicate reaching the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes out of 24. Recent debates over whether the conviction baseline includes absent or detained members have further highlighted procedural uncertainties that favor the defense position. Traders view these institutional dynamics and Senate leadership shifts as sustaining the current implied probability against conviction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
マーケット開始日： May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
音量
$13,794終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's composition and entrenched political alliances represent the primary barrier to convicting Vice President Sara Duterte on the House-transmitted articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and threats against President Marcos. With the trial underway since July 2026 and expected to extend well into 2027 across dozens of hearing days, Duterte-aligned senators hold sufficient seats to complicate reaching the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes out of 24. Recent debates over whether the conviction baseline includes absent or detained members have further highlighted procedural uncertainties that favor the defense position. Traders view these institutional dynamics and Senate leadership shifts as sustaining the current implied probability against conviction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
音量
$13,794終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate's composition and entrenched political alliances represent the primary barrier to convicting Vice President Sara Duterte on the House-transmitted articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and threats against President Marcos. With the trial underway since July 2026 and expected to extend well into 2027 across dozens of hearing days, Duterte-aligned senators hold sufficient seats to complicate reaching the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes out of 24. Recent debates over whether the conviction baseline includes absent or detained members have further highlighted procedural uncertainties that favor the defense position. Traders view these institutional dynamics and Senate leadership shifts as sustaining the current implied probability against conviction.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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