Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Robert Aderholt's entrenched position in this Solid Republican district per Cook Political Report, boasting an R+33 partisan voting index. With the May 19 Republican primary imminent and early voting closing May 15, Aderholt's dominant fundraising—$776,000 cash on hand versus challenger Tommy Barnes' $35,000 as of late April—signals minimal primary risk, echoing his prior easy wins including 98.8% in 2024. Democrats, led by underfunded Amanda Pusczek, face historical blowout losses exceeding 80% margins. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset, Aderholt scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$27,341 거래량
$27,341 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
93%
민주당
7%
$27,341 거래량
$27,341 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$13,104 거래량
93%
민주당
$14,237 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Robert Aderholt's entrenched position in this Solid Republican district per Cook Political Report, boasting an R+33 partisan voting index. With the May 19 Republican primary imminent and early voting closing May 15, Aderholt's dominant fundraising—$776,000 cash on hand versus challenger Tommy Barnes' $35,000 as of late April—signals minimal primary risk, echoing his prior easy wins including 98.8% in 2024. Democrats, led by underfunded Amanda Pusczek, face historical blowout losses exceeding 80% margins. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset, Aderholt scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$27,341종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Robert Aderholt's entrenched position in this Solid Republican district per Cook Political Report, boasting an R+33 partisan voting index. With the May 19 Republican primary imminent and early voting closing May 15, Aderholt's dominant fundraising—$776,000 cash on hand versus challenger Tommy Barnes' $35,000 as of late April—signals minimal primary risk, echoing his prior easy wins including 98.8% in 2024. Democrats, led by underfunded Amanda Pusczek, face historical blowout losses exceeding 80% margins. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset, Aderholt scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$27,341종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Robert Aderholt's entrenched position in this Solid Republican district per Cook Political Report, boasting an R+33 partisan voting index. With the May 19 Republican primary imminent and early voting closing May 15, Aderholt's dominant fundraising—$776,000 cash on hand versus challenger Tommy Barnes' $35,000 as of late April—signals minimal primary risk, echoing his prior easy wins including 98.8% in 2024. Democrats, led by underfunded Amanda Pusczek, face historical blowout losses exceeding 80% margins. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary upset, Aderholt scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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