Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary arithmetic under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Since November 2025, five opposition MPs—four Conservatives and one New Democrat—have switched to the Liberals, contributing to a majority government after April 2026 byelections. The most recent defection occurred on April 8 when Marilyn Gladu joined from the Conservative caucus, citing economic priorities and constituent input. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing split views on the practice, while opposition leaders criticize it as undermining electoral mandates. With the Liberal majority now secured, further crossings hinge on individual MP alignments or internal party tensions ahead of the next general election cycle.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
2026.06.30
May 31
19%
$1,868 거래량
May 31
$255 거래량
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary arithmetic under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Since November 2025, five opposition MPs—four Conservatives and one New Democrat—have switched to the Liberals, contributing to a majority government after April 2026 byelections. The most recent defection occurred on April 8 when Marilyn Gladu joined from the Conservative caucus, citing economic priorities and constituent input. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing split views on the practice, while opposition leaders criticize it as undermining electoral mandates. With the Liberal majority now secured, further crossings hinge on individual MP alignments or internal party tensions ahead of the next general election cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
거래량
$1,868종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary arithmetic under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Since November 2025, five opposition MPs—four Conservatives and one New Democrat—have switched to the Liberals, contributing to a majority government after April 2026 byelections. The most recent defection occurred on April 8 when Marilyn Gladu joined from the Conservative caucus, citing economic priorities and constituent input. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing split views on the practice, while opposition leaders criticize it as undermining electoral mandates. With the Liberal majority now secured, further crossings hinge on individual MP alignments or internal party tensions ahead of the next general election cycle.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,868종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: No
이의 없음
최종 결과: No
Recent floor crossings have reshaped Canada's parliamentary arithmetic under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Since November 2025, five opposition MPs—four Conservatives and one New Democrat—have switched to the Liberals, contributing to a majority government after April 2026 byelections. The most recent defection occurred on April 8 when Marilyn Gladu joined from the Conservative caucus, citing economic priorities and constituent input. Public opinion remains divided, with polls showing split views on the practice, while opposition leaders criticize it as undermining electoral mandates. With the Liberal majority now secured, further crossings hinge on individual MP alignments or internal party tensions ahead of the next general election cycle.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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