Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, a seat with a strongly conservative partisan voter index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. Crawford’s unopposed primary and the absence of significant polling shifts or major campaign developments reinforce trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s rural and northeastern Arkansas base, combined with the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, anchors the current consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late-breaking national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal affecting Crawford, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트AR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$25,421 거래량
$25,421 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
99%
Democratic Party
1%
$25,421 거래량
$25,421 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$15,833 거래량
99%
Democratic Party
$9,588 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, a seat with a strongly conservative partisan voter index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. Crawford’s unopposed primary and the absence of significant polling shifts or major campaign developments reinforce trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s rural and northeastern Arkansas base, combined with the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, anchors the current consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late-breaking national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal affecting Crawford, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$25,421종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, a seat with a strongly conservative partisan voter index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. Crawford’s unopposed primary and the absence of significant polling shifts or major campaign developments reinforce trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s rural and northeastern Arkansas base, combined with the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, anchors the current consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late-breaking national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal affecting Crawford, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$25,421종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford faces Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, a seat with a strongly conservative partisan voter index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles. Crawford’s unopposed primary and the absence of significant polling shifts or major campaign developments reinforce trader expectations of continued GOP control. The district’s rural and northeastern Arkansas base, combined with the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, anchors the current consensus. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late-breaking national Democratic wave, an unforeseen scandal affecting Crawford, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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