Incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton (D) anchors trader consensus favoring Democrats at 83.5% odds to retain Arizona's 4th Congressional District, a Cook PVI D+4 seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Stanton won comfortably in 2024 (52.7%) and 2022 (56.1%), running unopposed in prior Democratic primaries, bolstered recently by major labor endorsements from UA, Teamsters, and others in March. A crowded Republican primary featuring Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall risks a fragmented field ahead of the July 21 primaries, potentially weakening the GOP nominee against Stanton's incumbency edge, though his progressive challenger Kai Newkirk adds primary uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,557 거래량
$13,557 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
83%
공화당
16%
$13,557 거래량
$13,557 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$11,000 거래량
83%
공화당
$2,557 거래량
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton (D) anchors trader consensus favoring Democrats at 83.5% odds to retain Arizona's 4th Congressional District, a Cook PVI D+4 seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Stanton won comfortably in 2024 (52.7%) and 2022 (56.1%), running unopposed in prior Democratic primaries, bolstered recently by major labor endorsements from UA, Teamsters, and others in March. A crowded Republican primary featuring Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall risks a fragmented field ahead of the July 21 primaries, potentially weakening the GOP nominee against Stanton's incumbency edge, though his progressive challenger Kai Newkirk adds primary uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$13,557종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton (D) anchors trader consensus favoring Democrats at 83.5% odds to retain Arizona's 4th Congressional District, a Cook PVI D+4 seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Stanton won comfortably in 2024 (52.7%) and 2022 (56.1%), running unopposed in prior Democratic primaries, bolstered recently by major labor endorsements from UA, Teamsters, and others in March. A crowded Republican primary featuring Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall risks a fragmented field ahead of the July 21 primaries, potentially weakening the GOP nominee against Stanton's incumbency edge, though his progressive challenger Kai Newkirk adds primary uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$13,557종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton (D) anchors trader consensus favoring Democrats at 83.5% odds to retain Arizona's 4th Congressional District, a Cook PVI D+4 seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Stanton won comfortably in 2024 (52.7%) and 2022 (56.1%), running unopposed in prior Democratic primaries, bolstered recently by major labor endorsements from UA, Teamsters, and others in March. A crowded Republican primary featuring Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall risks a fragmented field ahead of the July 21 primaries, potentially weakening the GOP nominee against Stanton's incumbency edge, though his progressive challenger Kai Newkirk adds primary uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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