Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.7%
기타 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$191,202 거래량
$191,202 거래량
2026.06.13
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
예
claude-opus-4-6
아니오
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
아니오
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
아니오
gemini-3.5-flash
아니오
기타
아니오
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.7%
기타 <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$191,202 거래량
$191,202 거래량
2026.06.13
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$80,989 거래량
예
claude-opus-4-6
$13,439 거래량
아니오
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$8,352 거래량
아니오
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$6,121 거래량
아니오
gemini-3.5-flash
$2,345 거래량
아니오
기타
$79,956 거래량
아니오
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
거래량
$191,202종료일
2026.06.13마켓 개설일
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 없음
최종 결과: 예
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$191,202종료일
2026.06.13마켓 개설일
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...결과 제안됨: 예
이의 없음
최종 결과: 예
Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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