Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs claude-opus-4-6-thinking (98.3%) as the top AI model on the LM Arena leaderboard snapshot for May 16 (Style Control Off), driven by its recent surge to the #1 ELO spot at 1502 as of May 14, overtaking Anthropic's own newer claude-opus-4-7-thinking (1501 ELO). Released in February 2026, Claude Opus 4.6's explicit chain-of-thought "thinking" mode excels in business management, entertainment, and hard prompts, bolstering Anthropic's dominance in crowdsourced LLM evaluations where user votes reflect real-world capabilities like sustained reasoning and creative output. With the leaderboard updating continuously via blind battles, this positioning reflects stable vote momentum over the past week, though an overnight influx of votes favoring GPT-5.5-high or Gemini 3.1-pro-preview could challenge it before tomorrow's resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트claude-opus-4-6-thinking 98.3%
claude-opus-4-6 1.4%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
Other <1%
$26,635 거래량
$26,635 거래량
2026.05.16
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
98%
claude-opus-4-6
1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
Other
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
<1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 98.3%
claude-opus-4-6 1.4%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
Other <1%
$26,635 거래량
$26,635 거래량
2026.05.16
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7,541 거래량
98%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,702 거래량
1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$3,972 거래량
1%
Other
$2,107 거래량
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
$2,605 거래량
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
$4,863 거래량
<1%
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 거래량
<1%
muse-spark
$1,218 거래량
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs claude-opus-4-6-thinking (98.3%) as the top AI model on the LM Arena leaderboard snapshot for May 16 (Style Control Off), driven by its recent surge to the #1 ELO spot at 1502 as of May 14, overtaking Anthropic's own newer claude-opus-4-7-thinking (1501 ELO). Released in February 2026, Claude Opus 4.6's explicit chain-of-thought "thinking" mode excels in business management, entertainment, and hard prompts, bolstering Anthropic's dominance in crowdsourced LLM evaluations where user votes reflect real-world capabilities like sustained reasoning and creative output. With the leaderboard updating continuously via blind battles, this positioning reflects stable vote momentum over the past week, though an overnight influx of votes favoring GPT-5.5-high or Gemini 3.1-pro-preview could challenge it before tomorrow's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
거래량
$26,635종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs claude-opus-4-6-thinking (98.3%) as the top AI model on the LM Arena leaderboard snapshot for May 16 (Style Control Off), driven by its recent surge to the #1 ELO spot at 1502 as of May 14, overtaking Anthropic's own newer claude-opus-4-7-thinking (1501 ELO). Released in February 2026, Claude Opus 4.6's explicit chain-of-thought "thinking" mode excels in business management, entertainment, and hard prompts, bolstering Anthropic's dominance in crowdsourced LLM evaluations where user votes reflect real-world capabilities like sustained reasoning and creative output. With the leaderboard updating continuously via blind battles, this positioning reflects stable vote momentum over the past week, though an overnight influx of votes favoring GPT-5.5-high or Gemini 3.1-pro-preview could challenge it before tomorrow's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$26,635종료일
2026.05.16마켓 개설일
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs claude-opus-4-6-thinking (98.3%) as the top AI model on the LM Arena leaderboard snapshot for May 16 (Style Control Off), driven by its recent surge to the #1 ELO spot at 1502 as of May 14, overtaking Anthropic's own newer claude-opus-4-7-thinking (1501 ELO). Released in February 2026, Claude Opus 4.6's explicit chain-of-thought "thinking" mode excels in business management, entertainment, and hard prompts, bolstering Anthropic's dominance in crowdsourced LLM evaluations where user votes reflect real-world capabilities like sustained reasoning and creative output. With the leaderboard updating continuously via blind battles, this positioning reflects stable vote momentum over the past week, though an overnight influx of votes favoring GPT-5.5-high or Gemini 3.1-pro-preview could challenge it before tomorrow's resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문