Incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position in California's safely Democratic 18th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+16 partisan voting index, underpins trader consensus pricing Democrats at 94.3% to win the November 3 general election. Lofgren's dominant 2024 victory (65%) and superior fundraising—$580,000 cash on hand versus challengers' minimal totals—bolster her lead amid a weak Republican field headlined by underfunded Shane Lewis. The June 2 top-two primary looms, likely advancing Lofgren alongside another Democrat or Lewis, cementing the partisan lock given the district's 63% Harris support in 2024. Upsets would require a Lofgren scandal, health event at age 79, or extraordinary GOP surge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$34,710 거래량
$34,710 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
4%
$34,710 거래량
$34,710 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$16,688 거래량
95%
공화당
$18,022 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position in California's safely Democratic 18th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+16 partisan voting index, underpins trader consensus pricing Democrats at 94.3% to win the November 3 general election. Lofgren's dominant 2024 victory (65%) and superior fundraising—$580,000 cash on hand versus challengers' minimal totals—bolster her lead amid a weak Republican field headlined by underfunded Shane Lewis. The June 2 top-two primary looms, likely advancing Lofgren alongside another Democrat or Lewis, cementing the partisan lock given the district's 63% Harris support in 2024. Upsets would require a Lofgren scandal, health event at age 79, or extraordinary GOP surge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
거래량
$34,710종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position in California's safely Democratic 18th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+16 partisan voting index, underpins trader consensus pricing Democrats at 94.3% to win the November 3 general election. Lofgren's dominant 2024 victory (65%) and superior fundraising—$580,000 cash on hand versus challengers' minimal totals—bolster her lead amid a weak Republican field headlined by underfunded Shane Lewis. The June 2 top-two primary looms, likely advancing Lofgren alongside another Democrat or Lewis, cementing the partisan lock given the district's 63% Harris support in 2024. Upsets would require a Lofgren scandal, health event at age 79, or extraordinary GOP surge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$34,710종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position in California's safely Democratic 18th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+16 partisan voting index, underpins trader consensus pricing Democrats at 94.3% to win the November 3 general election. Lofgren's dominant 2024 victory (65%) and superior fundraising—$580,000 cash on hand versus challengers' minimal totals—bolster her lead amid a weak Republican field headlined by underfunded Shane Lewis. The June 2 top-two primary looms, likely advancing Lofgren alongside another Democrat or Lewis, cementing the partisan lock given the district's 63% Harris support in 2024. Upsets would require a Lofgren scandal, health event at age 79, or extraordinary GOP surge.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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