China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, announced during the National People's Congress, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0-5.0 percent bracket. First-quarter data released in April showed 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and driven by resilient exports, industrial output, and front-loaded fiscal measures, even amid energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict. Major institutions including the IMF and World Bank project full-year growth near 4.4 percent, while Goldman Sachs sees 4.8 percent, reflecting continued export momentum offset by subdued domestic consumption and property-sector challenges. These factors position the narrow 4.0-5.0 percent range as the dominant outcome in current market pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4.0–5.0% 69%
5.0–6.0% 30.4%
6.0-7.0% 1.5%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$572,118 거래량
$572,118 거래량
2026.01.31
1.0% 미만
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
69%
5.0–6.0%
30%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0~9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 69%
5.0–6.0% 30.4%
6.0-7.0% 1.5%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$572,118 거래량
$572,118 거래량
2026.01.31
1.0% 미만
$44,526 거래량
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$43,665 거래량
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$23,945 거래량
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$46,550 거래량
1%
4.0–5.0%
$138,757 거래량
69%
5.0–6.0%
$56,351 거래량
30%
6.0-7.0%
$51,224 거래량
2%
7.0–8.0%
$55,935 거래량
<1%
8.0~9.0%
$24,153 거래량
<1%
9.0%+
$87,013 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, announced during the National People's Congress, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0-5.0 percent bracket. First-quarter data released in April showed 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and driven by resilient exports, industrial output, and front-loaded fiscal measures, even amid energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict. Major institutions including the IMF and World Bank project full-year growth near 4.4 percent, while Goldman Sachs sees 4.8 percent, reflecting continued export momentum offset by subdued domestic consumption and property-sector challenges. These factors position the narrow 4.0-5.0 percent range as the dominant outcome in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
거래량
$572,118종료일
2026.01.31마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, announced during the National People's Congress, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0-5.0 percent bracket. First-quarter data released in April showed 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and driven by resilient exports, industrial output, and front-loaded fiscal measures, even amid energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict. Major institutions including the IMF and World Bank project full-year growth near 4.4 percent, while Goldman Sachs sees 4.8 percent, reflecting continued export momentum offset by subdued domestic consumption and property-sector challenges. These factors position the narrow 4.0-5.0 percent range as the dominant outcome in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$572,118종료일
2026.01.31마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, announced during the National People's Congress, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0-5.0 percent bracket. First-quarter data released in April showed 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and driven by resilient exports, industrial output, and front-loaded fiscal measures, even amid energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict. Major institutions including the IMF and World Bank project full-year growth near 4.4 percent, while Goldman Sachs sees 4.8 percent, reflecting continued export momentum offset by subdued domestic consumption and property-sector challenges. These factors position the narrow 4.0-5.0 percent range as the dominant outcome in current market pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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