Trader consensus behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor-market data and elevated inflation. April CPI readings showed headline inflation climbing to its highest level in nearly three years, driven by energy-price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures remained above the 2% target. This environment has shifted futures pricing via CME FedWatch toward zero odds of near-term easing and even modest probabilities of a hike, aligning with forward guidance that prioritizes data dependence over unscheduled action. Realistic challenges to this view include a sharp deterioration in employment or a systemic financial shock that forces an inter-meeting response, though current indicators and recent communications limit those scenarios.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$105,161 거래량
$105,161 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$105,161 거래량
$105,161 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor-market data and elevated inflation. April CPI readings showed headline inflation climbing to its highest level in nearly three years, driven by energy-price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures remained above the 2% target. This environment has shifted futures pricing via CME FedWatch toward zero odds of near-term easing and even modest probabilities of a hike, aligning with forward guidance that prioritizes data dependence over unscheduled action. Realistic challenges to this view include a sharp deterioration in employment or a systemic financial shock that forces an inter-meeting response, though current indicators and recent communications limit those scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
거래량
$105,161종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Trader consensus behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor-market data and elevated inflation. April CPI readings showed headline inflation climbing to its highest level in nearly three years, driven by energy-price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures remained above the 2% target. This environment has shifted futures pricing via CME FedWatch toward zero odds of near-term easing and even modest probabilities of a hike, aligning with forward guidance that prioritizes data dependence over unscheduled action. Realistic challenges to this view include a sharp deterioration in employment or a systemic financial shock that forces an inter-meeting response, though current indicators and recent communications limit those scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
거래량
$105,161종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus behind the 90.5% market-implied probability of no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the central bank’s decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting amid resilient labor-market data and elevated inflation. April CPI readings showed headline inflation climbing to its highest level in nearly three years, driven by energy-price shocks tied to geopolitical tensions, while core measures remained above the 2% target. This environment has shifted futures pricing via CME FedWatch toward zero odds of near-term easing and even modest probabilities of a hike, aligning with forward guidance that prioritizes data dependence over unscheduled action. Realistic challenges to this view include a sharp deterioration in employment or a systemic financial shock that forces an inter-meeting response, though current indicators and recent communications limit those scenarios.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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