Incumbent Rep. Kathy Castor's strong fundraising—over $1.2 million raised—and long tenure sustain Democratic trader consensus at 61% implied probability for the FL-14 House winner, despite Gov. Ron DeSantis' May 4 redistricting that shifted the Tampa Bay district southeast into GOP-friendly areas like Brandon and Plant City, yielding a 55%-44% Trump edge in 2024 results under new lines. The map faces court challenges, adding uncertainty, while a crowded Republican primary field—featuring recent entrants Bea Valenti (ex-Trump staffer, announced May 12) and Mike Beltran (ex-state representative considering self-funding $1 million)—risks fragmentation. No polls exist; forecasters like Cook rate Lean Republican, but markets favor Castor ahead of August 18 primaries.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$19,674 거래량
$19,674 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
61%
Republican Party
40%
$19,674 거래량
$19,674 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$8,517 거래량
61%
Republican Party
$11,157 거래량
40%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kathy Castor's strong fundraising—over $1.2 million raised—and long tenure sustain Democratic trader consensus at 61% implied probability for the FL-14 House winner, despite Gov. Ron DeSantis' May 4 redistricting that shifted the Tampa Bay district southeast into GOP-friendly areas like Brandon and Plant City, yielding a 55%-44% Trump edge in 2024 results under new lines. The map faces court challenges, adding uncertainty, while a crowded Republican primary field—featuring recent entrants Bea Valenti (ex-Trump staffer, announced May 12) and Mike Beltran (ex-state representative considering self-funding $1 million)—risks fragmentation. No polls exist; forecasters like Cook rate Lean Republican, but markets favor Castor ahead of August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
거래량
$19,674종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kathy Castor's strong fundraising—over $1.2 million raised—and long tenure sustain Democratic trader consensus at 61% implied probability for the FL-14 House winner, despite Gov. Ron DeSantis' May 4 redistricting that shifted the Tampa Bay district southeast into GOP-friendly areas like Brandon and Plant City, yielding a 55%-44% Trump edge in 2024 results under new lines. The map faces court challenges, adding uncertainty, while a crowded Republican primary field—featuring recent entrants Bea Valenti (ex-Trump staffer, announced May 12) and Mike Beltran (ex-state representative considering self-funding $1 million)—risks fragmentation. No polls exist; forecasters like Cook rate Lean Republican, but markets favor Castor ahead of August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$19,674종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Kathy Castor's strong fundraising—over $1.2 million raised—and long tenure sustain Democratic trader consensus at 61% implied probability for the FL-14 House winner, despite Gov. Ron DeSantis' May 4 redistricting that shifted the Tampa Bay district southeast into GOP-friendly areas like Brandon and Plant City, yielding a 55%-44% Trump edge in 2024 results under new lines. The map faces court challenges, adding uncertainty, while a crowded Republican primary field—featuring recent entrants Bea Valenti (ex-Trump staffer, announced May 12) and Mike Beltran (ex-state representative considering self-funding $1 million)—risks fragmentation. No polls exist; forecasters like Cook rate Lean Republican, but markets favor Castor ahead of August 18 primaries.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문