The open FL-19 Republican primary—vacated by Rep. Byron Donalds' bid for governor—remains tightly contested with trader consensus favoring Catalina Lauf at 41% over Jim Schwartzel's 39.5%, amid a fragmented field lacking public polls. Lauf's Trump administration tenure and national conservative profile draw support from MAGA donors, while Schwartzel leverages local business credentials and long-term Southwest Florida residency to counter "carpetbagger" critiques aimed at transplants like Madison Cawthorn (11.1%) and Jim Oberweis (11.1%). Absent major developments since the April 24 filing deadline, such as endorsements from Donalds, Trump, or DeSantis, or Q2 fundraising disclosures, the race hinges on voter consolidation; upcoming local forums or debates could tip the balance before the August 18 primary.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트카탈리나 라우프 41%
Jim Schwartzel 40.0%
짐 오버와이스 11.6%
매디슨 코소른 11.0%
$22,773 거래량
$22,773 거래량
카탈리나 라우프
41%
Jim Schwartzel
40%
짐 오버와이스
12%
매디슨 코소른
11%
스펜서 로치
8%
밥 롬멜
3%
카탈리나 라우프 41%
Jim Schwartzel 40.0%
짐 오버와이스 11.6%
매디슨 코소른 11.0%
$22,773 거래량
$22,773 거래량
카탈리나 라우프
41%
Jim Schwartzel
40%
짐 오버와이스
12%
매디슨 코소른
11%
스펜서 로치
8%
밥 롬멜
3%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
마켓 개설일: Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open FL-19 Republican primary—vacated by Rep. Byron Donalds' bid for governor—remains tightly contested with trader consensus favoring Catalina Lauf at 41% over Jim Schwartzel's 39.5%, amid a fragmented field lacking public polls. Lauf's Trump administration tenure and national conservative profile draw support from MAGA donors, while Schwartzel leverages local business credentials and long-term Southwest Florida residency to counter "carpetbagger" critiques aimed at transplants like Madison Cawthorn (11.1%) and Jim Oberweis (11.1%). Absent major developments since the April 24 filing deadline, such as endorsements from Donalds, Trump, or DeSantis, or Q2 fundraising disclosures, the race hinges on voter consolidation; upcoming local forums or debates could tip the balance before the August 18 primary.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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