Germany's economy ministry and leading institutes recently halved their full-year 2026 GDP growth forecasts to around 0.5-0.6 percent after the Iran conflict drove sharp increases in oil and gas prices, weighing on manufacturing and export competitiveness. This energy-price shock has tempered expectations for Q2 sequential growth following the 0.3 percent advance recorded in Q1, which benefited from stronger consumption and a modest export rebound. Traders see the contest between sub-zero and 0.1-0.3 percent outcomes as finely balanced because fiscal stimulus and real-wage gains could still cushion activity, while persistent inflation risks and weak industrial sentiment point to stagnation or mild contraction. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with upcoming May industrial-production and retail-sales data likely to clarify the near-term trajectory.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 42%
1.3%+ 41%
0.7-0.9% 25%
신규
신규
2026.07.30
≤0.0%
48%
0.1-0.3%
46%
0.4-0.6%
27%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
42%
1.3%+
41%
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 42%
1.3%+ 41%
0.7-0.9% 25%
신규
신규
2026.07.30
≤0.0%
$8 거래량
48%
0.1-0.3%
$5 거래량
46%
0.4-0.6%
$4 거래량
27%
0.7-0.9%
$0 거래량
25%
1.0-1.2%
$0 거래량
42%
1.3%+
$0 거래량
41%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's economy ministry and leading institutes recently halved their full-year 2026 GDP growth forecasts to around 0.5-0.6 percent after the Iran conflict drove sharp increases in oil and gas prices, weighing on manufacturing and export competitiveness. This energy-price shock has tempered expectations for Q2 sequential growth following the 0.3 percent advance recorded in Q1, which benefited from stronger consumption and a modest export rebound. Traders see the contest between sub-zero and 0.1-0.3 percent outcomes as finely balanced because fiscal stimulus and real-wage gains could still cushion activity, while persistent inflation risks and weak industrial sentiment point to stagnation or mild contraction. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with upcoming May industrial-production and retail-sales data likely to clarify the near-term trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
거래량
$17종료일
2026.07.30마켓 개설일
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany's economy ministry and leading institutes recently halved their full-year 2026 GDP growth forecasts to around 0.5-0.6 percent after the Iran conflict drove sharp increases in oil and gas prices, weighing on manufacturing and export competitiveness. This energy-price shock has tempered expectations for Q2 sequential growth following the 0.3 percent advance recorded in Q1, which benefited from stronger consumption and a modest export rebound. Traders see the contest between sub-zero and 0.1-0.3 percent outcomes as finely balanced because fiscal stimulus and real-wage gains could still cushion activity, while persistent inflation risks and weak industrial sentiment point to stagnation or mild contraction. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with upcoming May industrial-production and retail-sales data likely to clarify the near-term trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$17종료일
2026.07.30마켓 개설일
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany's economy ministry and leading institutes recently halved their full-year 2026 GDP growth forecasts to around 0.5-0.6 percent after the Iran conflict drove sharp increases in oil and gas prices, weighing on manufacturing and export competitiveness. This energy-price shock has tempered expectations for Q2 sequential growth following the 0.3 percent advance recorded in Q1, which benefited from stronger consumption and a modest export rebound. Traders see the contest between sub-zero and 0.1-0.3 percent outcomes as finely balanced because fiscal stimulus and real-wage gains could still cushion activity, while persistent inflation risks and weak industrial sentiment point to stagnation or mild contraction. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with upcoming May industrial-production and retail-sales data likely to clarify the near-term trajectory.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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