**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
43%
Democratic Party
48%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
$847 거래량
43%
Democratic Party
$854 거래량
48%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
거래량
$1,701종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$1,701종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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