Following long-serving Sen. Dick Durbin's April 2025 retirement announcement, Illinois' March 17, 2026 primaries produced Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton—who prevailed in a crowded field backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker—and Republican former state party chair Don Tracy, cementing trader consensus at 95% implied probability for the Democrat amid the state's deep-blue lean. Chicago's dominant urban turnout and suburban Democratic strength have blocked Republicans from any statewide victory in over a decade, aligning market pricing with historical base rates for safe seats despite the open race. No post-primary polls have emerged, but the lopsided positioning reflects minimal competitive signals. Late-breaking scandals, candidate health events, or a massive national GOP midterm wave could challenge this, though such shifts remain improbable before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$24,617 거래량
$24,617 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
9%
$24,617 거래량
$24,617 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$12,484 거래량
95%
공화당
$12,133 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Following long-serving Sen. Dick Durbin's April 2025 retirement announcement, Illinois' March 17, 2026 primaries produced Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton—who prevailed in a crowded field backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker—and Republican former state party chair Don Tracy, cementing trader consensus at 95% implied probability for the Democrat amid the state's deep-blue lean. Chicago's dominant urban turnout and suburban Democratic strength have blocked Republicans from any statewide victory in over a decade, aligning market pricing with historical base rates for safe seats despite the open race. No post-primary polls have emerged, but the lopsided positioning reflects minimal competitive signals. Late-breaking scandals, candidate health events, or a massive national GOP midterm wave could challenge this, though such shifts remain improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$24,617종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Following long-serving Sen. Dick Durbin's April 2025 retirement announcement, Illinois' March 17, 2026 primaries produced Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton—who prevailed in a crowded field backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker—and Republican former state party chair Don Tracy, cementing trader consensus at 95% implied probability for the Democrat amid the state's deep-blue lean. Chicago's dominant urban turnout and suburban Democratic strength have blocked Republicans from any statewide victory in over a decade, aligning market pricing with historical base rates for safe seats despite the open race. No post-primary polls have emerged, but the lopsided positioning reflects minimal competitive signals. Late-breaking scandals, candidate health events, or a massive national GOP midterm wave could challenge this, though such shifts remain improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$24,617종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following long-serving Sen. Dick Durbin's April 2025 retirement announcement, Illinois' March 17, 2026 primaries produced Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton—who prevailed in a crowded field backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker—and Republican former state party chair Don Tracy, cementing trader consensus at 95% implied probability for the Democrat amid the state's deep-blue lean. Chicago's dominant urban turnout and suburban Democratic strength have blocked Republicans from any statewide victory in over a decade, aligning market pricing with historical base rates for safe seats despite the open race. No post-primary polls have emerged, but the lopsided positioning reflects minimal competitive signals. Late-breaking scandals, candidate health events, or a massive national GOP midterm wave could challenge this, though such shifts remain improbable before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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