Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird (R) decisively won Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, defeating challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper, while Drew Cox emerged from a crowded Democratic primary. This solidly Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, has delivered consistent GOP landslides, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for the Republican Party in the November general election. Baird's incumbency advantage, endorsements from figures like Rep. Jim Jordan, and the district's rural conservative base underpin the commanding odds. Upsets remain possible via a major scandal, health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical base rates in safe seats suggest low likelihood.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$1,351 거래량
91%
Democratic Party
$80 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird (R) decisively won Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, defeating challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper, while Drew Cox emerged from a crowded Democratic primary. This solidly Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, has delivered consistent GOP landslides, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for the Republican Party in the November general election. Baird's incumbency advantage, endorsements from figures like Rep. Jim Jordan, and the district's rural conservative base underpin the commanding odds. Upsets remain possible via a major scandal, health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical base rates in safe seats suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$1,431종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird (R) decisively won Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, defeating challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper, while Drew Cox emerged from a crowded Democratic primary. This solidly Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, has delivered consistent GOP landslides, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for the Republican Party in the November general election. Baird's incumbency advantage, endorsements from figures like Rep. Jim Jordan, and the district's rural conservative base underpin the commanding odds. Upsets remain possible via a major scandal, health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical base rates in safe seats suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$1,431종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jim Baird (R) decisively won Indiana's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 5, defeating challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper, while Drew Cox emerged from a crowded Democratic primary. This solidly Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15, has delivered consistent GOP landslides, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for the Republican Party in the November general election. Baird's incumbency advantage, endorsements from figures like Rep. Jim Jordan, and the district's rural conservative base underpin the commanding odds. Upsets remain possible via a major scandal, health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave, though historical base rates in safe seats suggest low likelihood.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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