Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination for Indiana's 4th congressional district with a comfortable primary margin in May 2026, positioning him to face Democratic nominee Drew Cox in the November general election. The district, encompassing west-central Indiana including Lafayette and western Indianapolis suburbs, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican territory. Baird's established incumbency and fundraising position contribute to the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at high probability levels. Factors that could narrow this margin include a significant national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-cycle developments altering turnout patterns among key voting blocs ahead of the November 3 contest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트IN-04 House Election Winner
IN-04 House Election Winner
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$3,941 거래량
94%
Democratic Party
$2,143 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination for Indiana's 4th congressional district with a comfortable primary margin in May 2026, positioning him to face Democratic nominee Drew Cox in the November general election. The district, encompassing west-central Indiana including Lafayette and western Indianapolis suburbs, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican territory. Baird's established incumbency and fundraising position contribute to the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at high probability levels. Factors that could narrow this margin include a significant national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-cycle developments altering turnout patterns among key voting blocs ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$6,084종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination for Indiana's 4th congressional district with a comfortable primary margin in May 2026, positioning him to face Democratic nominee Drew Cox in the November general election. The district, encompassing west-central Indiana including Lafayette and western Indianapolis suburbs, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican territory. Baird's established incumbency and fundraising position contribute to the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at high probability levels. Factors that could narrow this margin include a significant national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-cycle developments altering turnout patterns among key voting blocs ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,084종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination for Indiana's 4th congressional district with a comfortable primary margin in May 2026, positioning him to face Democratic nominee Drew Cox in the November general election. The district, encompassing west-central Indiana including Lafayette and western Indianapolis suburbs, has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican territory. Baird's established incumbency and fundraising position contribute to the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at high probability levels. Factors that could narrow this margin include a significant national political shift, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or late-cycle developments altering turnout patterns among key voting blocs ahead of the November 3 contest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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