Jerome Powell, as Federal Reserve Chair, faces no active federal investigations or indictments that could produce charges before June 30, leaving the market's 98% "No" probability anchored in the absence of any prosecutorial momentum from the Department of Justice. With the resolution window now just weeks away, no congressional referrals, whistleblower disclosures, or enforcement actions have surfaced to alter that baseline. Historical patterns show sitting Fed chairs rarely face criminal proceedings absent extraordinary evidence, and current political incentives further reduce the likelihood of rapid escalation. Still, an unexpected development such as newly disclosed financial misconduct or a sudden special-counsel appointment could theoretically shift the odds in the narrow remaining timeframe.