Trader consensus positions Andy Burnham as the clear frontrunner for any 2026 Labour leadership transition, driven by his established profile as a senior cabinet veteran with strong northern England backing and consistent polling leads within the party. Recent local election results and internal briefings have reinforced perceptions of his broad appeal across Labour factions, elevating his implied probability above 50 percent while keeping alternatives such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner in single digits due to narrower support bases. The 15.5 percent outcome for no change this year aligns with Keir Starmer’s current mandate and the absence of immediate triggers like a general election or forced resignation. Scheduled parliamentary by-elections and any shifts in government approval ratings through summer 2026 remain the primary variables that could still alter these probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트앤디 버넘 56.4%
2026년 차기 총리 없음 16%
웨스 스트리팅 9%
앤젤라 레이너 9%
$7,441,728 거래량
$7,441,728 거래량
앤디 버넘
56%
2026년 차기 총리 없음
16%
웨스 스트리팅
9%
앤젤라 레이너
9%
에드 밀리밴드
7%
알 칸즈
2%
나이절 파라지
1%
샤바나 마무드
1%
이베트 쿠퍼
1%
루시 파월
<1%
루퍼트 로우
<1%
레이첼 리브스
<1%
케미 바데녹
<1%
보리스 존슨
<1%
에드 데이비
<1%
브리짓 필립슨
<1%
로버트 제너릭
<1%
데이비드 래미
<1%
제임스 클레벌리
<1%
대런 존스
<1%
존 힐리
<1%
앤디 버넘 56.4%
2026년 차기 총리 없음 16%
웨스 스트리팅 9%
앤젤라 레이너 9%
$7,441,728 거래량
$7,441,728 거래량
앤디 버넘
56%
2026년 차기 총리 없음
16%
웨스 스트리팅
9%
앤젤라 레이너
9%
에드 밀리밴드
7%
알 칸즈
2%
나이절 파라지
1%
샤바나 마무드
1%
이베트 쿠퍼
1%
루시 파월
<1%
루퍼트 로우
<1%
레이첼 리브스
<1%
케미 바데녹
<1%
보리스 존슨
<1%
에드 데이비
<1%
브리짓 필립슨
<1%
로버트 제너릭
<1%
데이비드 래미
<1%
제임스 클레벌리
<1%
대런 존스
<1%
존 힐리
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions Andy Burnham as the clear frontrunner for any 2026 Labour leadership transition, driven by his established profile as a senior cabinet veteran with strong northern England backing and consistent polling leads within the party. Recent local election results and internal briefings have reinforced perceptions of his broad appeal across Labour factions, elevating his implied probability above 50 percent while keeping alternatives such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner in single digits due to narrower support bases. The 15.5 percent outcome for no change this year aligns with Keir Starmer’s current mandate and the absence of immediate triggers like a general election or forced resignation. Scheduled parliamentary by-elections and any shifts in government approval ratings through summer 2026 remain the primary variables that could still alter these probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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