Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 60% for the March market, reflecting that five of six triggers were definitively avoided by March 31: the Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March 18 FOMC meeting without a cut; Iran's regime endured U.S.-Israeli strikes without collapsing; President Trump issued no election interference national emergency declaration and did not invoke the Insurrection Act amid March 28 protests; and the SAVE Act passed the House but stalled in the Senate, short of signature. The sole uncertainty hinges on the Texas U.S. Senate GOP primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Democrat James Talarico already nominated—a "Something" trigger only if Cornyn advances. Recent University of Houston polling shows Paxton leading 48%-45% amid rising grassroots support, early voting starting May 18, tilting odds toward Paxton prevailing and preserving "Nothing."