Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, reflecting five months without any resolution triggers amid stabilizing geopolitical signals. A May 9 Ukraine truce on Victory Day reduced Russia-NATO invasion fears, while recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Strait of Hormuz targets stayed below full invasion criteria, preserving the Iranian regime. Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000, President Trump remains in office with stable domestic politics, and no seismic or volcanic catastrophes have occurred. Upcoming risks include today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical incumbent losses temper odds of a Republican Senate supermajority.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$557,242 거래량
$557,242 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$557,242 거래량
$557,242 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, reflecting five months without any resolution triggers amid stabilizing geopolitical signals. A May 9 Ukraine truce on Victory Day reduced Russia-NATO invasion fears, while recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Strait of Hormuz targets stayed below full invasion criteria, preserving the Iranian regime. Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000, President Trump remains in office with stable domestic politics, and no seismic or volcanic catastrophes have occurred. Upcoming risks include today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical incumbent losses temper odds of a Republican Senate supermajority.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
거래량
$557,242종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, reflecting five months without any resolution triggers amid stabilizing geopolitical signals. A May 9 Ukraine truce on Victory Day reduced Russia-NATO invasion fears, while recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Strait of Hormuz targets stayed below full invasion criteria, preserving the Iranian regime. Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000, President Trump remains in office with stable domestic politics, and no seismic or volcanic catastrophes have occurred. Upcoming risks include today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical incumbent losses temper odds of a Republican Senate supermajority.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
거래량
$557,244종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, reflecting five months without any resolution triggers amid stabilizing geopolitical signals. A May 9 Ukraine truce on Victory Day reduced Russia-NATO invasion fears, while recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Strait of Hormuz targets stayed below full invasion criteria, preserving the Iranian regime. Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000, President Trump remains in office with stable domestic politics, and no seismic or volcanic catastrophes have occurred. Upcoming risks include today's Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan tensions and November midterms, where historical incumbent losses temper odds of a Republican Senate supermajority.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문