Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy enters the New York 26th congressional district race with a substantial structural edge rooted in the district's D+11 partisan voter index and his 65 percent share of the vote in the 2024 general election. The Buffalo-Niagara Falls area has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting the path for Republican challenger Dennis Hannon despite his primary candidacy. With the June 23 primaries now approaching and the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus at 90.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of altering the balance. Only significant national shifts, a surprising primary outcome, or late-cycle events would realistically pressure the current implied probability before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$24,405 거래량
$24,405 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
91%
공화당
9%
$24,405 거래량
$24,405 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$12,910 거래량
91%
공화당
$11,495 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy enters the New York 26th congressional district race with a substantial structural edge rooted in the district's D+11 partisan voter index and his 65 percent share of the vote in the 2024 general election. The Buffalo-Niagara Falls area has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting the path for Republican challenger Dennis Hannon despite his primary candidacy. With the June 23 primaries now approaching and the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus at 90.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of altering the balance. Only significant national shifts, a surprising primary outcome, or late-cycle events would realistically pressure the current implied probability before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$24,405종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy enters the New York 26th congressional district race with a substantial structural edge rooted in the district's D+11 partisan voter index and his 65 percent share of the vote in the 2024 general election. The Buffalo-Niagara Falls area has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting the path for Republican challenger Dennis Hannon despite his primary candidacy. With the June 23 primaries now approaching and the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus at 90.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of altering the balance. Only significant national shifts, a surprising primary outcome, or late-cycle events would realistically pressure the current implied probability before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$24,405종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tim Kennedy enters the New York 26th congressional district race with a substantial structural edge rooted in the district's D+11 partisan voter index and his 65 percent share of the vote in the 2024 general election. The Buffalo-Niagara Falls area has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, limiting the path for Republican challenger Dennis Hannon despite his primary candidacy. With the June 23 primaries now approaching and the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus at 90.5 percent for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline advantages and the absence of major recent developments capable of altering the balance. Only significant national shifts, a surprising primary outcome, or late-cycle events would realistically pressure the current implied probability before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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