Oregon’s 1st congressional district remains a deep-blue seat with a partisan voting index of roughly D+20, covering western Portland suburbs and coastal areas that have delivered Democratic margins above 60 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Suzanne Bonamici secured her party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl advanced with about 72 percent. Bonamici’s consistent general-election performance, including a 68 percent share in 2024, underpins the 94.5 percent Democratic implied probability. A national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp drop in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and the district’s structural lean make such shifts improbable before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트OR-01 House Election Winner
OR-01 House Election Winner
$11,707 거래량
$11,707 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$11,707 거래량
$11,707 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$10,461 거래량
95%
Republican Party
$1,246 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon’s 1st congressional district remains a deep-blue seat with a partisan voting index of roughly D+20, covering western Portland suburbs and coastal areas that have delivered Democratic margins above 60 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Suzanne Bonamici secured her party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl advanced with about 72 percent. Bonamici’s consistent general-election performance, including a 68 percent share in 2024, underpins the 94.5 percent Democratic implied probability. A national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp drop in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and the district’s structural lean make such shifts improbable before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$11,707종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon’s 1st congressional district remains a deep-blue seat with a partisan voting index of roughly D+20, covering western Portland suburbs and coastal areas that have delivered Democratic margins above 60 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Suzanne Bonamici secured her party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl advanced with about 72 percent. Bonamici’s consistent general-election performance, including a 68 percent share in 2024, underpins the 94.5 percent Democratic implied probability. A national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp drop in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and the district’s structural lean make such shifts improbable before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$11,707종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oregon’s 1st congressional district remains a deep-blue seat with a partisan voting index of roughly D+20, covering western Portland suburbs and coastal areas that have delivered Democratic margins above 60 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Suzanne Bonamici secured her party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary with nearly 87 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl advanced with about 72 percent. Bonamici’s consistent general-election performance, including a 68 percent share in 2024, underpins the 94.5 percent Democratic implied probability. A national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp drop in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and the district’s structural lean make such shifts improbable before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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