Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's R+11 partisan voting index and Smucker's consistent reelection margins create structural advantages that align with the 88.5% Republican probability reflected in current trader consensus. Fundraising data shows Smucker maintaining a substantial cash-on-hand lead over Democratic challenger Nancy Mannion, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. The May 19 Republican primary presents no significant threat to the incumbent, and no recent polling or legislative developments have altered the competitive balance. Traders appear to price in typical incumbent retention rates for similarly partisan districts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
89%
Democratic Party
12%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$2,008 거래량
89%
Democratic Party
$808 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's R+11 partisan voting index and Smucker's consistent reelection margins create structural advantages that align with the 88.5% Republican probability reflected in current trader consensus. Fundraising data shows Smucker maintaining a substantial cash-on-hand lead over Democratic challenger Nancy Mannion, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. The May 19 Republican primary presents no significant threat to the incumbent, and no recent polling or legislative developments have altered the competitive balance. Traders appear to price in typical incumbent retention rates for similarly partisan districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$2,815종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's R+11 partisan voting index and Smucker's consistent reelection margins create structural advantages that align with the 88.5% Republican probability reflected in current trader consensus. Fundraising data shows Smucker maintaining a substantial cash-on-hand lead over Democratic challenger Nancy Mannion, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. The May 19 Republican primary presents no significant threat to the incumbent, and no recent polling or legislative developments have altered the competitive balance. Traders appear to price in typical incumbent retention rates for similarly partisan districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,815종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The district's R+11 partisan voting index and Smucker's consistent reelection margins create structural advantages that align with the 88.5% Republican probability reflected in current trader consensus. Fundraising data shows Smucker maintaining a substantial cash-on-hand lead over Democratic challenger Nancy Mannion, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. The May 19 Republican primary presents no significant threat to the incumbent, and no recent polling or legislative developments have altered the competitive balance. Traders appear to price in typical incumbent retention rates for similarly partisan districts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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