Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98 percent probability that Senator Ruben Gallego will remain in his Arizona seat through May 31, driven by the lack of any confirmed developments since an April ethics complaint referral to the Senate Ethics Committee concerning his ties to Representative Eric Swalwell. Gallego continues routine Senate activities, including recent bipartisan legislation on veteran employment programs and statements on foreign policy, with no public indications of resignation, health concerns, or procedural actions that would trigger departure. The compressed two-week window further limits realistic exit paths. Unlikely scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt ethics ruling prompting voluntary resignation or an unforeseen personal event, though historical patterns show such rapid Senate departures are rare without prior escalation.