U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, effective May 9–11 and publicly affirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv, has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst in trader assessments of a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. This U.S.-brokered pause coincided with Russia's Victory Day commemorations and followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy, including Geneva trilateral talks where negotiators advanced technical details on ceasefire monitoring while remaining deadlocked on territorial and security provisions. Both sides have since traded accusations of violations, yet the mutual public commitments and humanitarian exchanges represent the clearest de-escalation signal since earlier short-term truces. Ongoing U.S. pressure for extensions, coupled with statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials signaling openness to broader talks, continues to shape expectations ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$655,116 거래량
2026.12.31
5월 31일
3%
6월 30일
12%
10월 31일
38%
12월 31일
51%
$655,116 거래량
5월 31일
$278,277 거래량
3%
6월 30일
$197,638 거래량
12%
10월 31일
$57,065 거래량
38%
12월 31일
$122,135 거래량
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, effective May 9–11 and publicly affirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv, has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst in trader assessments of a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. This U.S.-brokered pause coincided with Russia's Victory Day commemorations and followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy, including Geneva trilateral talks where negotiators advanced technical details on ceasefire monitoring while remaining deadlocked on territorial and security provisions. Both sides have since traded accusations of violations, yet the mutual public commitments and humanitarian exchanges represent the clearest de-escalation signal since earlier short-term truces. Ongoing U.S. pressure for extensions, coupled with statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials signaling openness to broader talks, continues to shape expectations ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
거래량
$655,116종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, effective May 9–11 and publicly affirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv, has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst in trader assessments of a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. This U.S.-brokered pause coincided with Russia's Victory Day commemorations and followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy, including Geneva trilateral talks where negotiators advanced technical details on ceasefire monitoring while remaining deadlocked on territorial and security provisions. Both sides have since traded accusations of violations, yet the mutual public commitments and humanitarian exchanges represent the clearest de-escalation signal since earlier short-term truces. Ongoing U.S. pressure for extensions, coupled with statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials signaling openness to broader talks, continues to shape expectations ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$655,116종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, effective May 9–11 and publicly affirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv, has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst in trader assessments of a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. This U.S.-brokered pause coincided with Russia's Victory Day commemorations and followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy, including Geneva trilateral talks where negotiators advanced technical details on ceasefire monitoring while remaining deadlocked on territorial and security provisions. Both sides have since traded accusations of violations, yet the mutual public commitments and humanitarian exchanges represent the clearest de-escalation signal since earlier short-term truces. Ongoing U.S. pressure for extensions, coupled with statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials signaling openness to broader talks, continues to shape expectations ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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