Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026, driven by his dominant position in the deep-red state where Republicans have held both seats since 2015 and won his 2020 reelection with 66%. A Mason-Dixon poll from early April showed Rounds leading the June 2 Republican primary 66%-18% over challenger Justin McNeal, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement and a massive fundraising edge—$2.9 million cash on hand versus opponents' under $60,000 combined. Weak Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion and independent Brian Bengs trail far in resources and name recognition, with no recent general election polls shifting dynamics. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset, late scandal, or strong national midterm wave against Republicans, though structural factors like incumbency and base turnout favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
91%
Democrat
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
$3,643 거래량
91%
Democrat
$2,080 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026, driven by his dominant position in the deep-red state where Republicans have held both seats since 2015 and won his 2020 reelection with 66%. A Mason-Dixon poll from early April showed Rounds leading the June 2 Republican primary 66%-18% over challenger Justin McNeal, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement and a massive fundraising edge—$2.9 million cash on hand versus opponents' under $60,000 combined. Weak Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion and independent Brian Bengs trail far in resources and name recognition, with no recent general election polls shifting dynamics. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset, late scandal, or strong national midterm wave against Republicans, though structural factors like incumbency and base turnout favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
거래량
$5,723종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026, driven by his dominant position in the deep-red state where Republicans have held both seats since 2015 and won his 2020 reelection with 66%. A Mason-Dixon poll from early April showed Rounds leading the June 2 Republican primary 66%-18% over challenger Justin McNeal, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement and a massive fundraising edge—$2.9 million cash on hand versus opponents' under $60,000 combined. Weak Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion and independent Brian Bengs trail far in resources and name recognition, with no recent general election polls shifting dynamics. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset, late scandal, or strong national midterm wave against Republicans, though structural factors like incumbency and base turnout favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$5,723종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Rounds commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026, driven by his dominant position in the deep-red state where Republicans have held both seats since 2015 and won his 2020 reelection with 66%. A Mason-Dixon poll from early April showed Rounds leading the June 2 Republican primary 66%-18% over challenger Justin McNeal, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement and a massive fundraising edge—$2.9 million cash on hand versus opponents' under $60,000 combined. Weak Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion and independent Brian Bengs trail far in resources and name recognition, with no recent general election polls shifting dynamics. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset, late scandal, or strong national midterm wave against Republicans, though structural factors like incumbency and base turnout favor continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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